KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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A Modeling of Daily Precipitation Series using the Poisson Cluster Process

Poisson 군집과정을 이용한 일강수계열의 모형화

Kim, Jae-Han;Lee, Jung-Sik;Lee, Jae-Joon;Son, Kwang-Ik
김재한;이정식;이재준;손광익

  • Published : 1998.05.30

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Abstract

The precipitation occurrence process is modelled by the Neyman-Scott cluster process which is a stochastic model of point process. To analyze the cluster of the precipitation occurrence process in daily precipitation series, normalized spectrum of precipitation counts and log survivor function of interarrival time are applied by the Poisson process and Poisson cluster process. As the result of analysis of normalized spectrum and log survivor function Poisson cluster model is more fitted than Poisson model. The discrete probability distributions : TBD, TPD, TNBD, and LSD, are used to determine optimal probability distribution of the cluster size and the precipitation amounts of given wet day is estimated by the continuous probability distributions: Gamma, Pearson Type-III, Extremal Type-III. and 3 parameter Weibull distribution. It is shown that the cluster size is fitted by the TNBD in general. and the precipitation amounts is fitted by the TE3, PT3, Gamma in order.

본 연구에서는 강수사상의 발생패턴과 사상기간내의 강수의 종속구조를 구명하기 위해 4대강 유역의 11개 지점의 일 강수계열 자료를 대상으로 모형화하였다 즉, point과정의 추계학적 모형인 Neyman-Scott 군집모형을 이용하여 강수발생과정을 모형화하고 강수일의 강수량과정을 조합하여 일 강수계열에 관한 모형을 확립하였다. 일 강수계열의 강수발생과정에 대한 군집성을 분석결과. 강수 총수 스펙트럼은 지수함수적 거동을 보이고 있는데 Poisson 군집모형의 적합성이 Poisson 모형 보다 훨씬 양호하였으며, 대수생존함수를 통해 본 출현간 시간의 분포 또한 Poisson 군집모형의 적합성이 Poisson 모형 보다 훨씬 양호하였다. 군집의 지속기간과 강수량에 대한 최적분포형을 결정하기 위하여 군집의 지속기간은 이산형분포에, 강수일의 강수량 분포는 연속확률분포에 적용하였으며, 군집 지속기간은 전반적으로 절단 음이항분포(TNBD)를 이루고 있는 것으로 나타났고, 강수일의 강수량은 Type-III 극치분포가 적합하며, 그 외에는 Pearson Type-III 분포(PT3), Gamma분포 순으로 복합적으로 적합하였다.

Keywords

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