Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
권호 표지

Analysis of Economical & Social Impact of Meteorological Information

기상정보가 사회 경제에 미치는 영향과 효과분석

Yang, Young-Min;Kang, In-Sik;Yoo, Jin-Ho;An, Kyoung-Hee
양영민;강인식;유진호;안경희

  • Published : 20040000
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The cost caused by natural disaster has been increasing rapidly since last decade, for example, it amount to $ 34 billion during warm ENSO between 1997 and 1998 for all over the world. Thus, we have reviewed economic and social benefits of predictional and climatological information based on an extensive literature search in WMO, Korea Meteorological Administration. Statistical data-exchange rate, GDP of each country and so on have been obtained from national statistical office of Korea, UK, USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Also, we applied the methodology that was used in those foreign papers to estimate the economic benefit of weather and climate in Korea. Industries sensitive to weather and climate is agriculture, forestry and fisheries, construction, transportation, public utilities, retail trade, finance, insurance and real state, the GDP ratio of these industries is about 42% in USA and 52% in Korea. The benefits using weather and climate information represent about 0.2% of GDP when we assess the benefits based on searches that was applied to domestic industrial sector and 0.3% of GDP when we estimate the benefits using the data that we analyzed through the international papers. We suppose that the economical effect of weather and climate reaches about 1% of GDP if it is included the cost caused by weather & climate disaster damage.

Keywords

References

  1. 기상청, 2002: 날씨활용연구집:'기상은 경제다'. 기상청, 139pp
  2. 대한상공회의소 홈페이지, 2003: http://www.korcahm/. net. 대한상공회의소
  3. 중앙재해대책본부홈페이지, 2003: http://ndch.mogaha.go.kr. 중앙재해대책본부
  4. 통계청홈페이지, 2003: http://www.nso.go.kr/. 통계청
  5. 한국경제홈페이지, 2001: http://www.hankyung.com/. 한국경제
  6. 한국산업은행, 2000: 2000년 재무분석결과. 한국산업은행, 27pp
  7. 한국산업은행, 2002: 2002년 기업재무분석. 한국산업은행, 15pp
  8. 한국증권거래소 홈페이지, 2003: http://www.kse.or.kr. 한국증권거래소
  9. 황진택과 정예모, 1999: 기상이변이 경제에 미치는 영향. 삼성지구환경연구소
  10. Adams, R.M., et al., 1994: The value of improved long range weather information. El Nino forecasts and US agriculture, In Ref 10
  11. Ballentine, V., 1994: The use of marketing principles to maximise economic benefits of weather. Meteoro- logical Applications, 1(2), 165-172
  12. Basher, R.E., 1996: Significance of climate prediction for New Zealand; a study conducted for the Ministry of Research. Science & Technology. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. Unpublished manuscript, Wellington, New Zealand
  13. Basso,E., 1990: Economic benefits of meteorology and hydrology in WMO Regions ⅢandⅣ. the outcome of WMO Technical Conference held in Santiago, Chile, 21-24 November 1989. In Ref 9
  14. Bellamy, N,F, and Cresswell, N.J., 1994. Economic benefit of Met Ocean Analysis to the offshore oil industry
  15. Bellamy, N,F, and Cresswell, N.J., 1994. Economic benefit of Met Ocean Analysis to the offshore oil industry
  16. Berggren, R., 1975: Economic Benefits of Climatological Service. WMO-TN No.145. Geneva
  17. Biswas, M.R. and Biswas, A.K.,1979: Food, Climate and Man. Wiley&Sons, New York
  18. Brown, B.G. et al., 1986. On the economic value of seasonal precipitation forecasts: the fallowing/planting problem. Bulletin of the America Meteorological Society, 67, 833-841 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1986)067<0833:OTEVOS>2.0.CO;2
  19. Byerlee, D.R. and Anderson, J.R., 1982: Risk, utility and the value of information in farmer's decision making. Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, 50, 231-246
  20. Byerlee, D.R and Anderson, J.R., 1969: Value of predictors of uncontrolled factors in response functions. Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 13, 118-127 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8489.1969.tb00060.x
  21. Changnon, S.A., 1994: Economic benefits of climate forecasts to power utilities in the United States, In Ref 10
  22. Dommermuth, H., 1990. Economic benefits of an agrometeorological advisory service-selected examples from the Federal Republic of Germany
  23. Gibbons, J., 1995: Presentation to the International Forum on Forecasting El Nino, 6-8 November 1995, Washington D.C
  24. Gringof, I.G., and Nikitina. D.i., 1990: The economic effectiveness of using agro-meteorological information in agriclture in the USSR. In Ref9
  25. Hammer, G., 1994: The use of seasonal forecasts in crop management. Agricultural Systems and Information Technology. Climate and Risk, 6(2), 42-44
  26. Harrison, M.S.J., et al, 1991: Value of long-range forecasts to commercial users in the United Kingdom. Long-range Forecasting Research Report No. 14, WMO-TD No. 395. Geneva
  27. J.M. Nichols, 1996: Economic and social benefits of climatological information and services: A review of existing assessments, World Climate Programme Applications and Services, WMO/TD-No. 780
  28. Jones, J.W., K.J. Boote, S.S. Jagtag, G. Hoogenboom, and G. G. Wilkerson. 1988. SOYGROV 5.41: Soybean Crop Growth Simulation Model User's Guide. Florida, Agr. Exp. Sta. Journal No. 8304, IFAS. Univ. of Florida, 1988
  29. Keane, T., et al, 1987: Economic benefits of agro- meteoro- logical services. WMO Commission for Agrometeorology Report No.27, WMO-TD. No.212, Geneva
  30. Kite-Powell, H.L, and Solow, A.R, 1994: A Bayesian approach to estimating benefits of improved forecasts. Meteorological Applications, 1(4), 351-354 https://doi.org/10.1002/met.5060010405
  31. Lagos, p. and Buizer, J., 1991: El Nino and Peru: A nations response to interannual climate variability. In Natural and Technological Disasters: Causes, Effects and Preventive Measures, Pennsylvania Academy of Sciences, USA. See also International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, A Proposal, 1992, IRICP Task Group, Maryland, USA
  32. Lava, L.b., 1963: The Value of better weather informaion to the raisin industry. Econometrica, 31(1-2), 151-164 https://doi.org/10.2307/1910954
  33. Ma Henian, 1990: The Chinese Meteorological Service Play an Important Role in the Development of the National Economy. Economic and Social Benefits of Meteorological and Hydrological Services, Proceedings of the Technical Conference, WMO-No.733
  34. Mason, B.J., 1966: The role of meteorology in the national economy. Weather, November, 382-393
  35. Maunder, W.J,, 1986: The Uncertainty Business: Risks and Opportunities in Weather and Climate. London, Methuen
  36. Mjelde, J.W., et al. 1988: Valuing forecast characteristics in a dynamic agricultural production system. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 70, 674-684 https://doi.org/10.2307/1241506
  37. Mjelde, J.W. et al, 1997. Utilizing a farm level decision model prioritizing future climate research needs. Meteorological Applications, 4(2), 161-170 https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482797000418
  38. Morzuch, B.J. and Willis, C.E., 1982: Value of weather information in cranberry marketing decisions. Jouranl of Applied Meteorology, 21, 449-504
  39. 1998: The Atmospheric Science:Entering the Twenty-First Century, National Academies Press, pp24-26
  40. O'Brien, J.J., 1993: Workshop on the economic impact of ENSO forecasts on the American. Australian and Asian continents. Florida State University, Tallahassee
  41. Phillips, D.W., 1986(a): Economic Benefits of Climate Applications. Canadian Climate Center Report, 86-2 (Unpublished Manuscript). Downsview, Ontario
  42. Phillips, D.W., 1986(b): Marketing Climatology for Today's User. Climatological Bulletin, 20(2). Downsview, Ontario
  43. Raman, C.R.V., 1990. Reorienting applied climatic services to user needs. In Ref 9
  44. Rijks, D., 1987: Agrometeorology, a tool in land and water management. Land and Water Resources Management, 2, Seminar papers. Economic Development Institute, World Bank, Washington
  45. Schneider, R. et al., 1974. Application of Meteorology to Economic & Social Development. WMO-TN No.132. Geneva
  46. Stewart, J.I, and Hash, C.T., 1982: Impact of weather analysis on agricultural and planning decisions for the semi-arid areas of Kenya. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 21, 447-494 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1982)021<0447:DOTVOW>2.0.CO;2
  47. Temple, J.H. and Frehs, J., 1994: Economic benefits of hydrological services. In Ref 10
  48. Tice, T.F. and Clouser, R.L., 1982: Determination of the value of weather information to individual corn producers. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 21, 447-452 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1982)021<0447:DOTVOW>2.0.CO;2
  49. Wilks, D.S. and Murphy, A.H., 1985: On the value of seasonal precipitation forecasts in a haying/pasturing problem in Western Oregon. Monthly Weather Review, 113, 1738-1745 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<1738:TVOSPF>2.0.CO;2
  50. Wilks, D.S. and Murphy, A.H., 1986: A decision-analytic study of the joint value of seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts in a choice-of-crop problem. Atmosphere-Ocean, 24, 353-368 https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1986.9649257
  51. WMO, 1985: Meteorology and Society. Statement by the Principal Delegate of China to Ninth Congress WMO-No. 463, Geneva
  52. WMO, 1994: Conference on hte Economic Benefits of Meteorological and Hydrological Services Geneva, 19-23 September 1994. WMO-TD No.630. Geneva
  53. WMO, 2002: Methodologies for the assessment of costs and benefits of meteorological services. AG/R&Op- II(02), APPENDIX D