Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회지)

Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회)
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Developing of Forest Fire Occurrence Probability Model by Using the Meteorological Characteristics in Korea

기상특성을 이용한 전국 산불발생확률모형 개발

  • Published : 2004.12.01
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Abstract

This study was conducted to develop a forest fire occurrence model using meteorological characteristics for the practical purpose of forecasting forest fire danger. Forest fire in South Korea is highly influenced by humidity, wind speed, and temperature. To effectively forecast forest fire occurrence, we need to develop a forest fire danger rating model using weather factors associated with forest fire. Forest fore occurrence patterns were investigated statistically to develop a forest fire danger rating index using time series weather data sets collected from 8 meteorological observation centers. The data sets were for 5 years from 1997 through 2001. Development of the forest fire occurrence probability model used a logistic regression function with forest fire occurrence data and meteorological variables. An eight-province probability model by was developed. The meteorological variables that emerged as affective to forest fire occurrence are effective humidity, wind speed, and temperature. A forest fire occurrence danger rating index of through 10 was developed as a function of daily weather index (DWI).

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References

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