The Regime Shift of the Northern Hemispheric Circulation Responsible for the Spring Drought in Korea

한반도 봄철 가뭄과 연관된 북반구 대기순환패턴의 변화

Kim, Sung;Park, Chung-Kyu;Kim, Meang-Ki
김성;박정규;김맹기

  • Published : 2005.08.31

Abstract

This study investigated the characteristics of large scale atmospheric circulation in the Northern hemisphere associated with the springtime rainfall variations in Korea for the period from 1954 to 2003. The composite and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analyses indicate that the upper-level circulation pattern during the drought years is characterized by anomalous development of continental high over the northern part of the Eurasian continent related to the Eurasian wavetrain and weakening of the North Pacific high. The Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis reveals that the Scandinavia teleconnection pattern (SCAND) and the North Pacific teleconnection pattern (NP) captured in the third and fourth modes, respectively, are closely associated with the springtime rainfall variation in Korea. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) patterns are captured as the two most dominant modes during the springtime, but their impact on the springtime rainfall variation in Korea appears to be less significant. It is interesting to note that SCAND has a stronger connection with the springtime rainfall variation before the mid-1980s, while NP has a stronger signal after the mid-1980s. It is found that the dominant signal of atmospheric circulation responsible for the spring drought varies with inter-decadal time-scale and the circulation pattern over the western North Pacific has more crucial impact on the springtime rainfall variation in recent years.

Keywords

References

  1. 전영신, 박순웅, 1990: 1982년 과우장마때 아시아 지역의 대기순환의 특징, 한국기상학회지, 26, 12-24
  2. 변희룡, 김종군, 최선도, 1992: 연속 강수량 100mm 이상의 봄비와 관련된 수증기 순환, 한국기상학회지. 28, 479-496
  3. 이동규, 김영아, 1997: 1980-1989년 북동아시아의 봄철 일기 유형 및 황사 현상과의 관계, 한국기상학회지, 33, 17-39
  4. 하경자, 박성규, 김기영, 2003: 한반도 주변의 하계 강수량의 경년변동과 이에 연관된 동아시아 순환의 특성, 한국기상학회지, 39, 575-586
  5. Barnston, A. G. and R. E. Livezey, 1987: Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1083-1126 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2
  6. Bell, G. D. and L. E. Janowiak, 1995: Atmospheric circulation associated with the midwest floods of 1993. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 681-695 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1995)076<0681:ACAWTM>2.0.CO;2
  7. Bretherton, C. S., C. Smith, and J. M. Wallace, 1992: An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data. J. Climate, 5, 541-560 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0541:AIOMFF>2.0.CO;2
  8. Blackburn, M. and B. J. Hoskins, 2001: Atmospheric variability and extreme autumn rainfall in the UK. available on-line at http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/∼mike/autumn2000.html
  9. Bjerknes, J. 1966: A possible response of the atmospheric hadley circulation to equatorial anomalies of ocean temperature. Tellus, 18, 820-829 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1966.tb00303.x
  10. Bjerknes, J., 1969: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 97, 163-172 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1969)097<0163:ATFTEP>2.3.CO;2
  11. Deser, C., 2000: On the teleconnectivity of the 'Arctic Oscillation'. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 779-782 https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010945
  12. Deser, C., and Maurice, L. Blackmon, 1993: Surface climate variation over the North Atlantic ocean during winter: 1900-1989. J. Climate, 6, 1743-1753
  13. Ferranti, L., Molteni, F. and T. N. Palmer, 1994: Impact of localized tropical and extratropical SST anomalies in ensembles of seasonal GCM integrations. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 1613-1645 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712052009
  14. Byun H. R. and Y. H. Han, 1994: On the existence of the seasonal drought in the Korean Peninsula. J. Kor. Meteor. Soc., 30, 457-467
  15. Byun H. R., 1996: On the atmospheric circulation caused the drought in Korea. J. Kor. Meteor. soc., 32, 455-469
  16. Horel, J. D., 1981: A rotated principal component analysis of the interannual variability of the Northern Hemisphere 500mb height field. Mon Wea. Rev., 109, 2080-2092 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<2080:ARPCAO>2.0.CO;2
  17. Horel, J. D., and J. M. Wallace, 1981: Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 813-829 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0813:PSAPAW>2.0.CO;2
  18. Horel, J. D., 1984: Complex principle component analysis: theory and examples. J. Appl. Meteor., 23, 1660-1673 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<1660:CPCATA>2.0.CO;2
  19. Kutzbach, J. E., 1967: Empirical eigenvectors of sea-level pressure, surface temperature and precipitation complexes over North America. J, Appl. Meteor., 6, 791-802 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1967)006<0791:EEOSLP>2.0.CO;2
  20. Lorenz, E. N., 1956: Empirical orthogonal functions and statistical weather prediction. M. I. T. Dept. of Meteorology. Sci. Rept. No.1, Contract AF19 (604)-1566, 44pp
  21. Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, U. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1069-1079 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2
  22. Min, S. K., W. T. Kwon, E. H. Park and Y. G. Choi, 2003: Spatial and temporal comparisons of droughts over Korea with east asia. Int. J. Climatol., 23, 223- 233 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.872
  23. Mitchell, T. P. and J. M. Wallace, 1996: ENSO seasonality: 1950-78 versus 1979-92. J. Climate, 9, 3149-3161
  24. Namias, J., 1982: Some causes of United States drought. J. Climate, 2, 1362-1380 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<1362:SMATPO>2.0.CO;2
  25. Namias, J., 1991: Spring and summer 1988 drought over the contiguous United States-Causes and prediction. J. Climate, 4, 54-65 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0054:SASDOT>2.0.CO;2
  26. Nitta, T. and S. Yamada, 1989: Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 67, 375-383 https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.67.3_375
  27. Palmer, T. N. and J. Raisanen, 2002: Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate. Nature, 415, 512-514 https://doi.org/10.1038/415512a
  28. Palmer, T. N. and Z. Sun, 1985: A modelling and observational study of the relationship between sea surface temperature in the North-west Atlantic and the atmospheric general circulation. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 111, 947-975 https://doi.org/10.1256/smsqj.47002
  29. Park, C. K. and S. D. Schubert, 1997: On the nature of the 1994 East Asian summer drought. J. Climate, 10, 1056-1070 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1056:OTNOTE>2.0.CO;2
  30. Ratcliffe, R. A. S. and R. Murray, 1970: New lag associations between North Atlantic sea temperatures and european pressure, applied to long-range weather forecasting. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 96, 226-246 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709640806
  31. Richman, M. B., 1986: Rotation of principal components. J. Climatology, 6, 293-335 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370060305
  32. Storch, H. V. and F. W. Zwiers, 1999: Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University press
  33. Smith, T. M. and R. W. Reynolds, 2003: Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures based on COADS data (1854-1997). J. Climate, 16, 1495-1510 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442-16.10.1495
  34. Trenberth, K., 1984: Signal versus Noise in the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 326-332 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<0326:SVNITS>2.0.CO;2
  35. Trenberth, K., 1990: Recent observed interdecadal climate change in the Northern Hemisphere, BAMS, 17, 988-993
  36. Trenberth, K. and J. M. Caron, 2000: The Southern Oscillation revisited: sea level pressures, surface temperatures and precipitation. J. Climate, 13, 4358-4365 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4358:TSORSL>2.0.CO;2
  37. Tanimoto Y., N. Iwasaka, K. Hanawa and T. Toba, 1993: Characteristic variations of sea surface temperature with multiple tim scales in the North Pacific. J. Climate, 6, 1153-1160 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1153:CVOSST>2.0.CO;2
  38. Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation, Part I: Monthto-month variability. J. Climate, 13, 1000-1016 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1000:AMITEC>2.0.CO;2
  39. Wallace, J. M., C. Smith, and C. S. Bretherton, 1992: Singular value decomposition of wintertime sea surface temperature and 500-mb height anomalies. J. Climate, 5, 561-576 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0561:SVDOWS>2.0.CO;2
  40. Wallace, J. M. and D. S. Gutzler, 1981: Teleconnections in the geopotential height filed during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 784-812 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:TITGHF>2.0.CO;2
  41. Yasunaka, S., and K, Hanawa, 2002: Regime shifts found in the Northern Hemisphere SST field. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 80, 119-135 https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.80.119
  42. Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. J. Climate, 10, 1004-1020