Journal of the military operations research society of Korea (한국국방경영분석학회지)

Military Operations Research Society of Korea (한국국방경영분석학회)
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Why Do Individuals Postpone Their Enrollments for Military Service under a Conscription System? : Investigating Individuals' Psychological and Demographic Characteristics

징병제하에서 왜 군 입대를 늦추는가? : 심리적, 인구통계학적 특성 검토

  • Published : 2006.12.30
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Abstract

This study aims to empirically investigate the effects of the individual-level characteristics on their timing decisions for their enlistments even though military services are their duties under a draft system. The individual characteristics considered include five psychological factors, such as attitude, uncertainty, information search level, future expectation, and perceived risk towards army, and other several demographic variables. Measurement scales for these psychological variables are developed and a duration model for individuals' enrollment timing decisions is also proposed. The proposed model is fitted to a survey data set collected from both those who have completed military service and those who have not. The estimation results show that two of five psychological variables, negative attitude and perceived risk, and several demographic variables, including education level, income level, residence area, and the number of family members serving the army, have meaningful impacts on the timing decisions for military service. Specifically, the enlistment timings are found to be more delayed as negative attitude towards army is stronger, perceived risk on army is higher, education level is higher, academic performance is better, income level is either low or high, residence area is either Seoul or big cities, and the proportion of family members enlisted is smaller. Several important managerial implications for alleviating problems resulting from enrollment postponements are also discussed.

본 연구에서는 징병제 하에서 군 입대 연기를 가져오는 입대대상자의 개인적 특성변수를 실증적으로 검토한다. 개인적 특성 변수는 군에 대한 태도, 군 생활의 불확실성, 군 생활에 대한 정보탐색, 군 근무환경 개선에 대한 기대, 군 생활에 대한 지각된 위험이라는 5개의 심리차원 변수와 여러 인구통계학적 변수를 사용한다. 개인적 심리차원 변수의 척도를 개발한 후, 군 입대 지연기간의 분석을 위한 기간분석 모형 또한 제안하였다. 군복무 의무를 마친 사람과 군복무를 아직 마치지 않은 사람을 포괄하여 설문조사를 한 후, 제안된 모형을 추정하였다. 추정결과 다섯 개의 심리차원 변수 중 군에 대한 부정적 태도와 군 생활에 대한 지각된 위험이 입대지연에 영향을 주며, 인구통계학적 변수의 경우에는 학력, 소득, 학점, 거주지, 가족 중 군 입대자의 비율이 입대지연에 영향을 미친다는 것이 밝혀졌다. 구체적으로 군에 대한 부정적 태도가 증가할수록, 군 생활에 대한 지각된 위험이 증가할수록, 고학력일수록, 학교성적이 높을수록, 소득수준이 낮거나 높을수록 서울특별시와 광역시에 거주할수록, 가족 중 군 입대자의 비율이 낮을수록, 입대시점이 지연되었다. 이와 같은 추정결과를 바탕으로 대한민국의 병력수급관리를 위한 여러 시사점 또한 제시하였다.

Keywords

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