Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater (상하수도학회지)

The Korean Society of Water and Wastewater (대한상하수도학회)
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Dynamic Model of a Long-term Water Demand Using System Dynamics

시스템 다이나믹스를 이용한 도시 물수요 장기 예측의 동적 모델 연구

  • 이상은 (한국과학기술원 건설 및 환경공학과) ;
  • 최동진 (국토환경연구소) ;
  • 박희경 (한국과학기술원 건설 및 환경공학과)
  • Received : 2006.10.31
  • Accepted : 2007.01.08
  • Published : 2007.02.15
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Abstract

When one forecasts urban water demand in a long-term, multivariate model can give more benefits than per capita requirement model. However, the former has shortcomings in that statistically high explanatory power cannot be obtained well, and change in customer behavior cannot be considered. If the past water consumption effects the future water demand, dynamic model may describe real water consumption data better than static model, i.e. the existing multivariate model. On these grounds, this study built dynamic model using system dynamics. From a case study in Seoul and Busan city, dynamic model was expected to forecast water demand more descriptively and reliably.

Keywords

References

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