Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences

The Korean Space Science Society (한국우주과학회)
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Long Term Variability of the Sun and Climate Change

태양활동 긴 주기와 기후변화의 연관성 분석

  • Cho, Il-Hyun (Dept. of Astronomy and Atmospheric Sciences, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Chang, Heon-Young (Dept. of Astronomy and Atmospheric Sciences, Kyungpook National University)
  • 조일현 (경북대학교 천문대기과학과) ;
  • 장헌영 (경북대학교 천문대기과학과)
  • Published : 2008.12.15
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Abstract

We explore the linkage between the long term variability of the Sun and earth's climate change by analysing periodicities of time series of solar proxies and global temperature anomalies. We apply the power spectral estimation method named as the periodgram to solar proxies and global temperature anomalies. We also decompose global temperature anomalies and reconstructed total solar irradiance into each local variability components by applying the EMD (Empirical Mode Decomposition) and MODWT MRA (Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Multi Resolution Analysis). Powers for solar proxies at low frequencies are lower than those of high frequencies. On the other hand, powers for temperature anomalies show the other way. We fail to decompose components which having lager than 40 year variabilities from EMD, but both residuals are well decomposed respectively. We determine solar induced components from the time series of temperature anomalies and obtain 39% solar contribution on the recent global warming. We discuss the climate system can be approximated with the second order differential equation since the climate sensitivity can only determine the output amplitude of the signal.

태양활동프록시(proxies)와 지구연평균 기온아노말리 시계열을 이용하여 기후변화에서 태양활동신호를 찾아보았다. 이를 위해 Lomb & Scargle의 피어리드그램(Periodgram)을 이용하여 태양활동프록시와 기온아노말리 시계열을 주기분석하였다. 또한 EMD(Empirical Mode Decomposition)과 MODWR MRA(Maxial Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform Multi Resolution Analysis)를 적용하여 두 시계열을 성분분해하고 이들 중 비슷한 주기의 특성을 보이는 성분을 비교하였다. 태양활동프록시는 짧의 주기의 파워가 긴 주기의 파워에 비해서 큰 반면 기온아노말리는 긴 주기에서 더 큰 파워를 보였다 EMD에 의한 성분분해 결과는 약40년보다 긴 주기성을 갖는 성분을 분해해 낼 수 없었지만 잔차 성분은 비교할 수 있었다. MRA에 의한 성분분해를 통해 지구연평균 기온아노말리 시계열에서 태양활동의 변화에 의한 신호를 찾아내었다. 1960년부터 2007년까지 기온상승에 대한 태양의 기여도는 39%로 계산되었다. 기후민감성은 출력신호의 진폭에만 관계하여 기후시스템이 간단한 2계미분방정식으로 근사될 수 있는 가능성에 대해 토의하였다.

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