Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
권호 표지

A Measure for Travel Time Reliability

통행시간 신뢰성 지표 개발 및 산정에 관한 연구

  • 장수은 (한국교통연구원 육상교통연구본부) ;
  • 강지혜 (한국교통연구원 육상교통연구본부) ;
  • 이승준 (한국도로공사 도로교통연구원)
  • Published : 2008.10.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The term, travel-time reliability, refers to variations in journey time that travelers cannot predict. The purpose of this paper is to suggest a standard way to measure travel time reliability. A modified buffer time indicator is proposed. The index is represented by the difference between planned and actual travel times based on lognormal type travel time distribution. Using this framework, a constant function for railways and a negative parabola function for roads are discussed. The model developed is applied to the real data of Korean road and rail usages to empirically verify the methodology proposed. In this process, the unit value of travel time reliability for each group is estimated. The result of this research is expected to be helpful of conducting more cautious economic feasibility studies of transport.

통행시간 신뢰성은 통행자가 예측하기 힘든 통행시간의 변동을 설명하는 개념이다. 본 연구는 통행시간 신뢰성을 측정할 수 있는 지표를 개발하고, 국내 도로 및 철도 이용 실적자료를 바탕으로 통행시간 신뢰성 지표 원단위를 산정한다. 통행시간 신뢰성 측정 지표로 수정형 완충시간 지표를 제안하며, 신뢰성/비신뢰성의 임계점으로는 로그정규 통행시간분포를 기반으로 한 계획 통행시간과 실제 통행시간의 차이를 측정한다. 이를 통해 철도는 상수형 도로는 음의 포물선형 통행시간 신뢰성 지표함수를 개발한다. 본 연구의 결과가 도로 및 철도 투자사업의 신중한 의사결정에 일조할 수 있기를 기대한다.

Keywords

References

  1. 건설교통부(2001), 도로용량편람
  2. 장수은.정규화(2007), 철도사업 (예비)타당성조사의 사회경제적 가치 평가 항목 연구, 교통정책브리프 2007-05, 한국교통연구원
  3. Bremmer, D., Cotton, K., Cotey, D., Prestrud, C., and Westby G. (2004), Measuring congestion: learning from operational data, Transportation Research Record, 1895, pp.188-196
  4. Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Texas Transportation Institute, University of Washington, and Dowling Associates(2003), Providing a Highway System with Reliable Travel Times Study 3-Reliability, National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Project 20-58[3], Transportation Research Board
  5. Chen, A., Ji, Z., and Recker, W. (2002), Travel time reliability with risk-sensitive travelers, Transportation Research Record, 1783, pp.27-33
  6. Chen, C., Skabardonis, A., and Varaiya, P. (2003), Travel-time reliability as a measure of service, Transportation Research Record, 1855, pp.74-79
  7. Emam, E. and Al-Deek, H. (2006), Using real-life dual-loop detector data to develop new methodology for estimating freeway travel time reliability, Transportation Research Record, 1959, pp.140-150
  8. Lam, T. and Small, K. (2001), The value of time reliability: measurement from a value pricing experiment. Transportation Research Part E, 37E, pp.231-251
  9. Lint, J. and Zuylen, H. (2005), Monitoring and predicting freeway travel time reliability: using width and skew of day-to-day travel time distribution, Transportation Research Record, 1917, pp.54-62
  10. Oh, J. and Chung, Y. (2006), Calculation of travel time variability from loop detector data, Transportation Research Record, 1945, pp.12-23
  11. Supernak, J., Kaschade, C., and Steffey, D. (2003), Dynamic value pricing on I-15 in San Diego: impact on travel time and its reliability, Transportation Research Record, 1839, pp.45-54
  12. UK Strategic Rail Authority (2003), Appraisal Criteria
  13. US Florida Department of Transportation (2000), The Florida reliability method in Florida's mobility performance measures program, Working Paper