Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater (상하수도학회지)

The Korean Society of Water and Wastewater (대한상하수도학회)
권호 표지

Reliability Analysis for Probability of Pipe Breakage in Water Distribution System

상수관망의 파이프 파괴확률 산정을 위한 신뢰성 해석

  • Received : 2008.09.26
  • Accepted : 2008.11.05
  • Published : 2008.12.15
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Water pipes are supposed to deliver the predetermined demand safely to a certain point in water distribution system. However, pipe burst or crack can be happened due to so many reasons such as the water hammer, natural pipe ageing, external impact force, soil condition, and various environments of pipe installation. In the present study, the reliability model which can calculate the probability of pipe breakage was developed regarding unsteady effect such as water hammer. For the reliability model, reliability function was formulated by Barlow formula. AFDA method was applied to calculate the probability of pipe breakage. It was found that the statistical distribution for internal pressure among the random variables of reliability function has a good agreement with the Gumbel distribution after unsteady analysis was performed. Using the present model, the probability of pipe breakage was quantitatively calculated according to random variables such as the pipe diameter, thickness, allowable stress, and internal pressure. Furthermore, it was found that unsteady effect significantly increases the probability of pipe breakage. If this reliability model is used for the design of water distribution system, safe and economical design can be accomplished. And it also can be effectively used for the management and maintenance of water distribution system.

Keywords

References

  1. Ang, A. and Tang, W. H. (1984) Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design. John Wiley and Sons, Inc. New York
  2. Chaudhry, H. M. (1979) Applied Hydraulic Transients. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York
  3. Frankel, E. G. (1988) Systems Reliability and Risk Analysis. Klume Academic Publishers
  4. Karney, B. W. & McInnis, D. (1992) "Efficient calculation of transient flow in simple pipe networks."Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 118 (7), 1014-1031 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1992)118:7(1014)
  5. Kirmeyer, G., Richards, W., and Smith, C. D. (1994) An Assessment of Water Distribution Systems and Associated Research Needs. Denver, CO: AWWARF
  6. Kwon, H. J. & Lee, J. J. (2008) "Computer and experimental Models of transient flow in a piping system involving backflow preventers."Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 134, No. 4, pp. 426-434 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(2008)134:4(426)
  7. Kwon, H. J. (2005) "Transient flow in water distribution system."Ph..D. Thesis, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
  8. Mailhot, A., Pelletier, G., Noel, J-F., and Villeneuve, JP. (2000) "Modeling the evolution of the structural state of water pipe networks with brief recorded pipe break histories: Methodology and application." Water Resources Research, Vol. 36, No. 10, pp. 3053-3062 https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900185
  9. Modarres, M. (1999) Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis. Marcel Dekker
  10. National Research Council Canada (1995) Water Main Breaks Data on Different Pipe Materials for 1992-1993. Canada
  11. Watters, G. W. (1984) Analysis and Control of Unsteady Flow in Pipe lines. Butterworths, Boston
  12. Wylie, B. E. and Streeter, V. L. (1993) Fluid Transients in Systems. FEB Press, Ann Arbor, Mich