Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
권호 표지

Change in the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon Circulation due to the CO2 Increase in IPCC AR4 CGCMs

Lee, Seung-Min;Jhun, Jong-Ghap;Kwon, Min-Ho;Kim, Won-Moo

  • Published : 2008.08.10
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Abstract

In order to investigate the change in the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) caused by an increase in the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), nine coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) designed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are chosen, and their simulations are analyzed for the 20th century (20C3M) and CO2-quadrupling scenario (1pctto4x) experiments. The summer (JJA) mean climatology for several variables is analyzed in order to investigate the mean field change in the WNPSM circulation and the cause of this change. By performing the JJA mean analysis, we found that the rainfall over the WNPSM region, especially summer rainfall, increases with the CO2 concentration, which results from the enhanced conditional instability caused by the warm sea-surface temperature (SST) and increased moisture, despite a slight weakening of the low-level convergence. On the other hand, to examine the change in the interannual variability of the WNPSM, we performed a composite analysis of the differences between the strong and the weak monsoon years with respect to a newly defined WNPSM index. In the precipitation analysis, it was clarified that the monsoon variability would increase with global warming over the WNPSM region. The SST analysis revealed that the lag relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and WNPSM would be weakened with an increase in the CO2 concentration, implying that prediction of the WNPSM would become slightly difficult. On the basis of global warming scenario results obtained from the IPCC AR4 models, it is concluded that both the intensity and variability of the WNPSM would increase with CO2 concentration.

Keywords

References

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