Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회 논문집)

Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회)
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Analysis of the Secular Trend of the Annual and Monthly Precipitation Amount of South Korea

우리나라 월 및 연강수량의 경년변동 분석

  • 김광섭 (경북대학교 공과대학 토목공학과) ;
  • 임태경 (주식회사 삼안 수자원부) ;
  • 박찬희 (경북대학교 공과대학 토목공학과 BK21)
  • Published : 2009.12.31
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Abstract

In this study, the existence of possible deterministic longterm trend of precipitation amount, monthly maximum precipitation, rain day, the number of rain day greater than 20mm, 30mm, and 80mm was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall rank test and the data from 62 stations between 1905 and 2004 in South Korea. Results indicate that the annual and monthly rainfall amount increases and the number of rain days which have more than 80mm rainfall a day, increases. However the number of rain days decreases. Also, monthly trend analysis of precipitation amount and monthly maximum precipitation increases in Jan., May, Jun., Jul., Aug., and Sep. and they decrease in Mar., Apr., Oct., Nov., and Dec. Monthly trend of the number of rain day greater than 20mm, 30mm, and 80mm increases in Jun., Jul., Aug., and Sep. However results of Mann-Kedall test demonstrated that the ratio of stations, which have meaningful longterm trend in the significance level of 90% and 95%, is very low. It means that the random variability of the analyzed precipitation related data is much greater than their linear increment.

본 연구에서는 강수량, 월 최대강수량, 강수일수, 일강수량 20 mm, 30 mm 및 80 mm 이상인 일수의 장기추세의 통계적 유의성을 비모수 검정법인 Mann-Kendall 검정기법과 62개 지점의 1905년부터 2004년 기간 사이의 자료를 이용하여 분석하였다. 한반도 강수특성은 연강수량과 월 최대강수량의 증가, 강수일수 감소 그리고 20 mm, 30 mm, 80 mm 이상의 일강수를 가진 강수일수 증가로 요약될 수 있다. 또한 자료의 월별 추세분석 결과는 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9월 강수량과 월 최대강수량은 증가추세를 보이고 3, 4, 10, 11, 12월에는 감소추세를 보인다. 또한 6, 7, 8, 9월의 일강수량 20 mm와 30 mm 이상인 강수일수는 증가추세를 보였다. 그러나 Mann-Kendall 검정결과 90%와 95% 유의수준에 대하여 유의한 증감추세를 가지는 지점의 비율은 매우 낮았다. 이러한 결과는 각 변수의 선형 증감에 따른 장기 변동보다 자료들이 가지고 있는 분산형태의 불확실성이 매우 우세함을 의미하므로 수자원 계획 등에 반영하여야 할 것이다.

Keywords

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