Abstract
This study applies the cointegration theory to analyse the causality of the prices between imported fisheries and domestic fisheries in distribution channel. We've focused on the prices of import, wholesale and retail about the frozen Alaska pollack, hairtail and croaker which take up high portion and are popular among most of the consumers. In process of analysis, the unit root test was adopted to find the stability of time series data prior to the cointegration test. If the time series data was found as stable one in unit root test, we should analyse the VAR model. If unstable, the cointegratioin test was adopeted to find the long-run equilibrium relationship between the data. When the long-run equilibrium relationship was found among the price of the import, wholesale and retail price, the VECM model was adoped. If not, the differenced VAR model was adopted. The main findings of this study could be summarized as follows ; First, according to the result of the analysis on VAR model, time series data of frozen Alaska pollack was found as stable and has causality relationship and close effect was existing among the import, wholesale and retail price. Second, the data of frozen hairtail was found as an unstable one in unit root test and the result of cointegration test showed the long-run equilibrium relationship at lag 1. From the results of VECM model, we could find that the coefficient of error correction is effective, and the sign is negative(-). It means that the existence of adjustment tendency to long-run equilibrium after a short-run deviation. But the short-run causality of the prices were not found except the price of wholesale. Third, according to the results of differenced VAR model, data from frozen croaker did not have the stability and long-run equilibrium. Moreover, it was found that the import price has a weak causality on the retail price. Because of having difficulties in collecting data, the result of this paper could not explain the relationship among the prices of import, wholesale and retail perfectly. However, it more or less contributed to a long-lasted debate on the direction of causality of price-setting in academic research and provided a useful guide for the policy makers in charge of the price-setting of fisheries products as well.
