Abstract
Major impacts of climate change expert that soil erosion rate may increase during the $21^{st}$ century. This study was conducted to assess the potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion by water in Korea. The soil loss was estimated for regions with the potential risk of soil erosion on a national scale. For computation, Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with rainfall and runoff erosivity factors (R), cover management factors (C), support practice factors (P) and revised USLE with soil erodibility factors (K) and topographic factors (LS) were used. RUSLE, the revised version of USLE, was modified for Korean conditions and re-evaluate to estimate the national-scale of soil loss based on the digital soil maps for Korea. The change of precipitation for 2010 to 2090s were predicted under A1B scenarios made by National Institute of Meteorological Research in Korea. Future soil loss was predicted based on a change of R factor. As results, the predicted precipitations were increased by 6.7% for 2010 to 2030s, 9.5% for 2040 to 2060s and 190% for 2070 to 2090s, respectively. The total soil loss from uplands in 2005 was estimated approximately $28{\times}10^6$ ton. Total soil losses were estimated as $31{\times}10^6$ ton in 2010 to 2030s, $31{\times}10^6$ ton in 2040 to 2060s and $33{\times}10^6$ ton in 2070 to 2090s, respectively. As precipitation increased by 17% in the end of $21^{st}$ century, the total soil loss was increased by 12.9%. Overall, these results emphasize the significance of precipitation. However, it should be noted that when precipitation becomes insignificant, the results may turn out to be complex due to the large interaction among plant biomass, runoff and erosion. This may cause increase or decrease the overall erosion.
우리나라의 A1B 기후변화 시나리오에 따르면 21세기 말에는 강우량이 17% 증가하는 것으로 예상되고 있으며, 이에 따라 우리나라 밭토양의 단위면적당 토양 유실량은 2003년 대비 7.6% 증가하고, 총 토양 유실량은 2003년 대비 12.9% 증가하는 것으로 예측되었다. 그러나, 본 연구에서는 우리나라 강우량 변화 시나리오에 따른 토양 침식을 예측에 있어 미래의 작물, 토지이용의 변화 및 지구단위별 지형 변경 등의 인자는 분석에 적용되지 못하였다. 또한, 태풍빈도, 토지피복의 변화 등의 영향은 충분히 반영되지 않아 향후 기후변화에 따른 토양 유실 방지를 위해서는 보다 면밀한 대책이 필요할 것으로 생각된다. 따라서, 앞으로 이러한 문제점을 해결하기 위해서는 본 연구결과를 토대로 하여 적용 인자들을 확대하고, 향후 개선된 연구자료와 방법론으로 보완해야 할 것이다. 또한, 기후변화에 따른 비점오염원 관리정책과 연계하여 농업환경 영향평가, 예측 및 관리방안에 대한 연구가 필요하다고 판단된다.
