Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Projection and Analysis of Future Temperature and Precipitation using LARS-WG Downscaling Technique - For 8 Meteorological Stations of South Korea -

LARS-WG 상세화 기법을 적용한 미래 기온 및 강수량 전망 및 분석 - 우리나라 8개 기상관측소를 대상으로 -

  • 신형진 (건국대학교 대학원 사회환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 박민지 (건국대학교 대학원 사회환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 조형경 (건국대학교 대학원 사회환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 박근애 (건국대학교 사회환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 김성준 (건국대학교 사회환경시스템공학과)
  • Received : 2010.04.19
  • Accepted : 2010.07.20
  • Published : 2010.07.31
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Abstract

Generally, the GCM (General Circulation Model) data by IPCC climate change scenarios are used for future weather prediction. IPCC GCM models predict well for the continental scale, but is not good for the regional scale. This paper tried to generate future temperature and precipitation of 8 scattered meteorological stations in South Korea by using the MIROC3.2 hires GCM data and applying LARS-WG downscaling method. The MIROC3.2 A1B scenario data were adopted because it has the similar pattern comparing with the observed data (1977-2006) among the scenarios. The results showed that both the future precipitation and temperature increased. The 2080s annual temperature increased $3.8{\sim}5.0^{\circ}C$. Especially the future temperature increased up to $4.5{\sim}7.8^{\circ}C$ in winter period (December-February). The future annual precipitation of 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s increased 17.5 %, 27.5 %, and 39.0 % respectively. From the trend analysis for the future projected results, the above middle region of South Korea showed a statistical significance for winter precipitation and south region for summer rainfall.

Keywords

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