Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology (한국환경생태학회지)

Korean Society of Environment and Ecology (한국환경생태학회)
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Change Prediction for Potential Habitats of Warm-temperate Evergreen Broad-leaved Trees in Korea by Climate Change

기후변화에 따른 한반도 난온대 상록활엽수의 잠재 생육지 변화 예측

  • Yun, Jong-Hak (Plant Research Division, National Institute of Biological Resource) ;
  • Nakao, Katsuhiro (Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute) ;
  • Park, Chan-Ho (Plant Research Division, National Institute of Biological Resource) ;
  • Lee, Byoung-Yoon (Plant Research Division, National Institute of Biological Resource) ;
  • Oh, Kyoung-Hee (Plant Research Division, National Institute of Biological Resource)
  • 윤종학 (국립생물자원관 식물자원과) ;
  • 중미승양 (일본 산림총합연구소 식물 생태학 연구실) ;
  • 박찬호 (국립생물자원관 식물자원과) ;
  • 이병윤 (국립생물자원관 식물자원과) ;
  • 오경희 (국립생물자원관 식물자원과)
  • Received : 2011.04.05
  • Accepted : 2011.07.07
  • Published : 2011.08.31
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Abstract

The research was carried out for prediction of the potential habitats of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees under the current climate(1961~1990) and three climate change scenario(2081~2100) (CCCMA-A2, CSIRO-A2 and HADCM3-A2) using classification tree(CT) model. Presence/absence records of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees were extracted from actual distribution data as response variables, and four climatic variables (warmth index, WI; minimum temperature of the coldest month, TMC; summer precipitation, PRS; and winter precipitation, PRW) were used as predictor variables. Potential habitats(PH) was predicted 28,230$km^2$ under the current climate and 77,140~89,285$km^2$ under the three climate change scenarios. The PH masked by land use(PHLU) was predicted 8,274$km^2$ and the proportion of PHLU within PH was 29.3% under the current climate. The PH masked by land use(PHLU) was predicted 35,177~45,170$km^2$ and increased 26.9~36.9% under the three climate change scenarios. The expansion of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees by climate change progressed habitat fragmentation by restriction of land use. The habitats increase of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees had been expected competitive with warm-temperate deciduous broadleaf forest and suggested the expand and northward shift of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved forest zone.

본 연구는 기후변화에 따른 한반도 난온대 상록활엽수의 생육지 변화를 예측하기 위하여 CT-model을 이용하여 현재기후(1961~1990)와 3종류의 미래기후(2081~2100) 시나리오에서의 잠재 생육지를 예측하였다. 반응변수로서 난온대 상록활엽수의 실제 분포에서 추출한 유/무자료와 4가지 기후변수(온량지수, 최한월최저기온, 동경강수량, 하계강수량)를 예측변수로 사용하였다. 현재기후에서 잠재 생육지(PH)는 28,230$km^2$로 예측되었으며, 3종류 미래기후 시나리오(CCCMA-A2, CSIRO-A2, HADCM3-A2)에서는 77,140~89,285$km^2$로 예측되었다. 현재기후에서 토지 이용을 고려한 잠재 생육지(PHLU)는 8,274$km^2$로 예측되었으며, 잠재 생육지의 29.3%를 차지하였다. 미래기후에서 토지 이용을 고려한 잠재 생육지는 35,177~45,170$km^2$로 예측되었으며, 26.9~36.9% 증가하였다. 기후변화에 따른 난온대 상록활엽수의 분포 확대는 토지 이용에 제한되어 생육지 파편 형태로 진행되고 있다. 난온대 상록활엽수의 생육지 증가는 난온대 낙엽활엽수림과의 경쟁이 예상되며, 난온대 상록활엽수림대의 확대 및 북상을 시사하고 있다.

Keywords

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