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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Projection of Extreme Precipitation at the end of 21st Century over South Korea based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)

대표농도경로 (RCP)에 따른 21세기 말 우리나라 극한강수 전망

  • Sung, Jang Hyun (Climate Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA) ;
  • Kang, Hyun-Suk (Climate Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA) ;
  • Park, Suhee (Climate Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA) ;
  • Cho, ChunHo (Climate Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA) ;
  • Bae, Deg Hyo (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University) ;
  • Kim, Young-Oh (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University)
  • 성장현 (기상청 국립기상연구소 기후연구과) ;
  • 강현석 (기상청 국립기상연구소 기후연구과) ;
  • 박수희 (기상청 국립기상연구소 기후연구과) ;
  • 조천호 (기상청 국립기상연구소 기후연구과) ;
  • 배덕효 (세종대학교 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 김영오 (서울대학교 건설환경공학부)
  • Received : 2012.02.22
  • Accepted : 2012.03.19
  • Published : 2012.06.30
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Abstract

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are the latest emission scenarios recommended to use for the fifth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This study investigates the projection of extreme precipitation in South Korea during the forthcoming 21st Century using the generalized extreme value (GEV) analysis based on two different RCP conditions i.e., RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Maximum daily precipitation required for GEV analysis for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 are obtained from a high-resolution regional climate model forced by the corresponding global climate projections, which are produced within the CMIP5 framework. We found overall increase in frequency of extreme precipitation over South Korea in association with climate change. Particularly, daily extreme precipitation that has been occurred every 20 years in current climate (1980~2005) is likely to happen about every 4.3 and 3.4 years by the end of 21st Century (2070~2099) under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 conditions, respectively.

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References

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