Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회 논문집)

Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회)
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A Methodology for Flood Forecasting and Warning Based on the Characteristic of Observed Water Levels Between Upstream and Downstream

상하류 수위 특성을 기반으로 한 홍수예경보 기법

  • Jun, Hwandon (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Lee, Jiho (Research Institute of Construction Technology, Seoul National University of Science and Technology)
  • 전환돈 (서울과학기술대학교 공학대학 건설공학부) ;
  • 이지호 (서울과학기술대학교 건설기술연구소)
  • Received : 2013.11.05
  • Accepted : 2013.11.29
  • Published : 2013.12.31
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Abstract

For flood forecasting and warning in rivers, it may be a better way to use observed water levels between upstream and downstream, instead of using the rainfall-runoff models such as the storage function method, to minimize the error involved in flood forecasting. In addition, the advanced time should be acquired to prepare the disaster mitigation action to minimize flood damages. For this purpose, in this study, we suggest a flood forecasting and warning methodology which is able to predict downstream water levels at the point of flood forecasting in short time period, based on the currently observed upstream water levels. Applying the Artificial Neural Network to the currently observed upstream water levels, we can predict water levels at a flood forecasting region which may occur within 30 minutes. After the suggested method is applied to the upstream Nam-gang watershed in the Nakdong-River basin, it is concluded that the method can predict downstream water levels in certain accuracy and will be used as a flood forecasting and warning system in the region.

하천의 홍수예경보를 위해서는 기존의 저류함수법과 같은 강우-유출모형이 아닌 현재 관측되고 있는 하천의 수위변화를 기반으로 하는 것이 예보의 오차를 줄이는 방법이 될 수 있다. 또한 홍수범람에 따른 피해를 저감하기 위한 대비책의 수립을 위해서 일정시간의 선행시간을 확보하는 것이 중요하다. 이와 같은 목적을 달성하기 위하여 본 연구에서는 하천에서 현재 발생하고 있는 수위를 바탕으로 짧은 시간주기의 발생가능한 수위를 예측하여 하천의 홍수예경보에 활용할 수 있는 방법론을 제시하였다. 이를 위하여 홍수예보지점의 상류의 관측수위자료를 활용하여 인공신경망(Artificial Neural Network)을 적용 30분 이내에 발생가능한 수위를 예측할 수 있는 기법을 개발하였다. 제안된 방법론을 낙동강 유역의 남강댐 상류유역에 적용하여 수위예측의 정확성을 검증하였다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 서울과학기술대학교

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