Korean Management Science Review (경영과학)

The Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society (한국경영과학회)
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The Fluctuation Patterns of Conjunctivitis Cases Caused by Asian Dust Storm (ADS) : Focused on the ADS Density and the Accuracy of ADS Forecast

황사예보 및 황사농도에 따른 결막염 질환의 발생 패턴 분석

  • 이기광 (단국대학교 상경대학 경영학부)
  • Received : 2012.10.11
  • Accepted : 2012.11.07
  • Published : 2013.03.31
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Abstract

This study has an aim to analyze the effects of ADS on conjunctivitis patients among the residents of Seoul, Korea, between 2005 and 2008. For this purpose, the number of medical services provided to conjunctivitis patients on the days of windblown dust storms and the days without any windblown dust storms were analyzed by conducting paired t-test. The interactive effects of the ADS density and the accuracy of ADS forecast on the fluctuation of conjunctivitis cases were also investigated. The results showed that, even with an accurate forecast issued 24 hours prior to the event, the average number of medical services provided for conjunctivitis was higher on the index days than the comparison days. On the other hand, in cases of failure to provide an accurate forecast 24 hours prior to the ADS event, the number of conjunctivitis attacks reported was statistically significantly higher on the index days for 3~5 days after the occurrence of a dust storm in relation to the comparison days. We also found that the rate of increase in asthma treatments on the index days with low level of $PM_{10}$ concentration rather than high $PM_{10}$ level was more significant for all lag days. This study provides evidence that ADS events are significantly associated with conjunctivitis symptoms and the failure to forecast ADS events with low $PM_{10}$ level might aggravate conjunctivitis disease.

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References

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