Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society

Korean Data Analysis Society (한국자료분석학회)
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A Study on Forecasting Total Fertility Rate using Female First Marriage Rate

여성 초혼율을 사용한 합계출산율 예측에 관한 연구

  • Eom, Jimin (Office of Trend Analysis Research, Korea Institute of Child Care and Education) ;
  • Kim, Kee-Whan (Department of Information and statistics, Korea University)
  • 엄지민 (육아정책연구소 정책연구실 동향분석통계팀) ;
  • 김기환 (고려대학교 세종캠퍼스 과학기술대학 정보통계학과)
  • Received : 2013.05.20
  • Accepted : 2013.06.20
  • Published : 2013.06.30
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Abstract

By rapid changes in population structure, lack of labor force is expected to be a serious problem. Although importation of foreign labors is proposed as a solution, the fundamental solution is to increase the fertility rate. However, the immediate effect of stimulative fertility policy can not be expected. In addition, it is difficult to expect that the TFR will be increased under current economy situation and social atmosphere. In 2011, Statistics Korea announced that the TFR (meddle-level scenario) will be increased steadily until 2060. Since this official announcement is long term projected result of government based on scenario, it seems to be no need to evaluate adequacy. However, to understand well seriousness of low fertility problem, it is important to develop improved fertility forecasting model compared to the model from Statistics Korea. Therefore, in this study, unlike the existing model, we proposed improved fertility forecasting model using female first marriage rate. The improved model used the causal relationship between first marriage rate of female and first birth rate. To forecast TFR reflecting female first marriage rate through the improved model, we used estimated parameters from generalized log-gamma distribution model for female first marriage rate and first birth rate.

급격한 인구구조 변화로 인한 노동력 부족은 심각한 문제가 될 것으로 예상된다. 외국 노동인력의 도입이 하나의 해결책으로 제시되고 있으나 가장 근본적인 해결책은 출산율 부양일 것이다. 그러나 출산율 부양정책은 즉각적인 효과를 기대할 수 없다. 또한 현재의 경제적 여건이나, 사회적 분위기를 고려해볼 때, 합계출산율의 반등을 기대하기는 어렵다. 2011년 장래인구추계에서 통계청은 2060년까지 합계출산율(중위가정)은 꾸준히 증가하는 것으로 제시하였다. 그러나 이 결과는 시나리오에 기반을 둔 정부의 장기전망치이므로 값의 적절성을 평가할 필요는 없을 것으로 보인다. 그러나 통계청이 출산율 예측을 위해 사용하였던 모형보다 개선된 출산율 예측모형을 개발하는 것은 저출산 문제의 심각성을 보다 잘 이해하기 위해 반드시 필요한 연구라고 할 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기존의 모형과는 달리 여성 초혼율을 반영한 합계출산율 예측모형을 제안하였다. 개선된 모형에서는 여성 초혼율과 첫째 아 출생률의 인과관계를 설정하고 이용하였다. 개선된 모형을 통해 여성 초혼율을 반영한 합계출산율 예측을 위하여, 여성 초혼율과 첫째 아 출생률의 일반화로그감마분포모형 모수추정 결과를 사용하였다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 한국연구재단

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