Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회 논문집)

Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회)
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Evaluation on the Impact of Extreme Droughts in South Korea using the SPEI and RCP8.5 Climate Change Scenario

표준강수 증발산량지수(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)와 대표농도경로(Representative Concentration Pathways)를 이용한 남한지역 미래 가뭄의 변화전망

  • Kim, ByungSik (Kangwon National University, Department of Urban &Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering, School of Disaster Prevention) ;
  • Sung, Jang Hyun (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Yeongsan Flood Control Office) ;
  • Lee, Byung Hyun (Kangwon National University, Department of Urban &Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering, School of Disaster Prevention) ;
  • Kim, Do Jung (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Yeongsan Flood Control Office)
  • 김병식 (국립강원대학교 소방방재학부 & 방재전문대학원 도시환경방재공학과) ;
  • 성장현 (국토교통부 영산강홍수통제소) ;
  • 이병현 (국립강원대학교 방재전문대학원 도시환경방재공학전공) ;
  • 김도정 (국토교통부 영산강홍수통제소)
  • Received : 2013.02.22
  • Accepted : 2013.03.19
  • Published : 2013.04.30
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Abstract

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a method widely used to analyze droughts related to climate change, does not consider variables related to temperature that it is limited in that it can't consider changes in hydrological balance such as precipitation and evapotranspiration from climate change. If we were to consider only the future increase in precipitation from climate change, droughts may decrease. However, because usable water can diminish from an increase in evapotranspiration, it is indispensable to research to project droughts considering the amount of evapotranspiration as well as project and evaluate potential droughts considering the impact of climate change. As such, this study evaluated the occurrence of droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) as a drought index of a new concept that is similar to SPI but includes the temperature variability. We extracted simulated future precipitation and temperature data(2011~2099) from the RCP climate change scenario of IPCC AR5 to evaluate the impact of future climate change on the occurrence of droughts of South Korea. We thus analyzed the ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation of meteorological observatories nationwide. In addition, we calculated the SPEI in the process to evaluate the future occurrence of droughts of South Korea. As a result, the farther into the future, the more precipitation increased. But because of an increase in evapotranspiration also from a rise in temperature and continued dryness, the severity of droughts are forecast to exacerbate.

현재 기후변화와 관련하여 가뭄분석에 널리 쓰이고 있는 방법인 표준강수지수(Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI)는 기온과 관련된 변수를 고려하지 않기 때문에 기후변화로 인한 강수, 증발산 등의 물수지 변화를 고려할 수 없다는 한계점이 있다. 기후변화로 인한 미래 강수량의 증가만을 생각하면 가뭄이 감소할 수 있으나, 증발산량의 증가로 인해 사용 가능한 물의 양이 줄어들 수 있으므로 기후변화의 영향을 고려하여 잠재적 가뭄상태를 평가하고 예측하려면 증발산량을 고려한 가뭄 전망 연구가 반드시 필요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 SPI와 유사하지만 기온의 변동성이 포함된 새로운 개념의 가뭄지수인 표준강수 증발산량지수(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI)를 이용하여 가뭄발생을 평가하였다. 먼저 본 연구에서는 미래의 기후변화가 한반도의 가뭄발생에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위해 IPCC AR5의 RCP기후변화 시나리오로부터 모의된 미래강수 및 기온자료(2011년~2099년)를 추출하였으며 전국 기상관측소의 강수 대비 증발산의 비율을 분석하였다. 또한, 이를 통해 SPEI를 산정하여 남한지역의 미래 가뭄발생의 변화를 평가하였다. 그 결과, 미래로 갈수록 강수량이 증가하고는 있으나 건조지속기간의 증가 및 기온 상승으로 인한 증발산의 증가로 인해 가뭄의 심도가 증가될 수 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.

Keywords

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