Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers (한국자원공학회지)

The Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers (한국자원공학회)
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Forecasting Natural Gas Demand Using Nonlinear Model

비선형 모형을 이용한 천연가스 수요 전망

  • Jin, Junghwan (Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Kim, Jinsoo (Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University)
  • 진정환 (한양대학교 자원환경공학과) ;
  • 김진수 (한양대학교 자원환경공학과)
  • Published : 2013.06.30
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Abstract

Due to the development of unconventional gas and the Fukushima nuclear disaster, the importance of natural gas as a primary energy source is higher than before. Through nonlinear Weibull model, we analyzed the natural gas consumption to prepare the demand changes in the future. With the data from seven countries of OECD members, the energy-growth hypothesis (the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth can be represented by a S-shaped curve) for natural gas is tested. As results, natural gas consumption as well as total primary energy supply was well explained via S-shaped (Weibull) curve. However, the shape difference between countries was also existed. We thus drew the implications from the results based on the energy mix of each country.

주요한 에너지원 중의 하나인 천연가스는 비전통 가스의 개발 및 후쿠시마 원전 사고로 인하여 앞으로 더욱 그 중요성이 커질 것으로 전망된다. 이러한 시점에서 앞으로의 천연가스 수요 전망에 활용하기 위하여, 본 연구에서는 비선형 모형 중 하나인 Weibull 모형을 이용하여 경제 성장에 따른 천연가스의 소비 형태를 분석하였다. 분석 대상으로는 OECD 7대 에너지 소비국을 선정하였으며 경제 성장에 따른 에너지 소비의 형태가 S형 곡선의 형태로 나타날 수 있다는 가설을 바탕으로 천연가스에 대해서도 가설이 성립되는지 분석해 보았다. 분석 결과, 1차 에너지 소비와 마찬가지로 천연가스 소비에 대해서도 Weibull 모형을 통한 모형화의 설명력이 매우 높은 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 국가 별 차이도 존재하는 것으로 분석되어 각 국가의 에너지 믹스를 중심으로 분석 결과에 대한 함의를 도출해 보았다.

Keywords

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