Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers (조명전기설비학회논문지)

The Korean Institute of IIIuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers (한국조명전기설비학회)
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Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting for the Consecutive Holidays Using the Power Demand Variation Rate

전력수요 변동률을 이용한 연휴에 대한 단기 전력수요예측

  • 김시연 (숭실대학교 전기공학과) ;
  • 임종훈 (숭실대학교 전기공학과) ;
  • 박정도 (위덕대학교 에너지전기공학부) ;
  • 송경빈 (숭실대학교 전기공학부)
  • Received : 2013.01.30
  • Accepted : 2013.04.02
  • Published : 2013.06.30
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Abstract

Fuzzy linear regression method has been used for short-term load forecasting of the special day in the previous researches. However, considerable load forecasting errors would be occurring if a special day is located on Saturday or Monday. In this paper, a new load forecasting method for the consecutive holidays is proposed with the consideration of the power demand variation rate. In the proposed method, a exponential smoothing model reflecting temperature is used to short-term load forecasting for Sunday during the consecutive holidays and then the loads of the special day during the consecutive holidays is calculated using the hourly power demand variation rate between the previous similar consecutive holidays. The proposed method is tested with 10 cases of the consecutive holidays from 2009 to 2012. Test results show that the average accuracy of the proposed method is improved about 2.96% by comparison with the fuzzy linear regression method.

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References

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