Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Prospect of Design Rainfall in Urban Area Considering Climate Change

기후변화 영향을 고려한 도시지역의 확률강우량 전망

  • Son, Ah Long (School of Archi. and Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National Univ.) ;
  • Bae, Sung Hwan (School of Archi. and Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National Univ.) ;
  • Han, Kun Yeun (School of Archi. and Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National Univ.) ;
  • Cho, Wan Hee (Water Management Center, K-water)
  • 손아롱 (경북대학교 공과대학 건축 토목공학부) ;
  • 배성환 (경북대학교 공과대학 건축 토목공학부) ;
  • 한건연 (경북대학교 공과대학 건축 토목공학부) ;
  • 조완희 (한국수자원공사 물관리센터)
  • Received : 2013.03.04
  • Accepted : 2013.04.06
  • Published : 2013.06.30
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Abstract

Recent inundation damage has frequently occurred due to heavy rainfall in urban area, because rainfall has locally occurred exceeding the capability of a flood control plan by the exiting design rainfall from the data of Seoul weather station. Accordingly the objective of this study is to predict new design rainfall in order to make a future flood control plan considering climate change. In this study, for considering spatial characteristics of rainfall in urban area, data of AWS was used and for retaining insufficient rainfall data, WGR model was estimated the application of target area. The results were compared with the observation data and consequently show reasonable results. In addition, to prepare for climate change, design rainfall was calculated by applying for various climate scenarios and the result would be used in order to establish future flood control plan.

최근 도시지역에서는 호우로 인한 침수피해가 빈번하게 발생하고 있다. 특히 치수계획 수립의 기초가 되는 확률강우량을 초과한 국지적인 집중호우는 도시지역 침수피해의 주요 원인이 된다. 따라서 강우의 지역적인 특성을 고려한 신뢰도를 향상시킨 확률강우량 산정이 요구된다. 그러나 현재의 확률강우량 산정에는 강우의 시 공간적인 특성을 고려하지 않고 기상청 강우관측소 지점의 자료를 모든 지역에 동일하게 적용하고 있는 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화 영향 및 강우의 시 공간적인 특성을 고려한 확률강우량을 예측하였다. 강우의 공간적인 특성을 고려하기 위하여 AWS의 자료를 활용하였으며, 부족한 강우자료를 확보하기 위하여 강우발생 모형인 WGR 모형을 적용하였고, 기후변화 시나리오는 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5를 적용하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 치수대책 수립을 위한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

References

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