Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
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Forecasting the Air Cargo Demand With Seasonal ARIMA Model: Focusing on ICN to EU Route

계절성 ARIMA 모형을 이용한 항공화물 수요예측: 인천국제공항발 유럽항공노선을 중심으로

  • 민경창 (인하대학교 물류전문대학원) ;
  • 전영인 (인하대학교 물류전문대학원) ;
  • 하헌구 (인하대학교 물류전문대학원)
  • Received : 2012.07.20
  • Accepted : 2013.02.22
  • Published : 2013.06.30
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Abstract

This study develops a forecasting method to estimate air cargo demand from ICN(Incheon International Airport) to all airports in EU with Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model using volumes from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2009. This paper shows the superiority of SARIMA Model by comparing the forecasting accuracy of SARIMA with that of other ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models. Given that very few papers and researches focuses on air route, this paper will be helpful to researchers concerned with air cargo.

본 연구는 2000년 1사분기부터 2010년 4사분기 까지 인천국제공항에서 출발하여 유럽내 모든공항에 도착한 항공화물의 시계열 자료를 바탕으로 SARIMA 모형을 활용, 수요예측 모형을 구축하였다. 또한 SARIMA 모형을 활용하여 구축한 예측모형을 기존에 주로 활용되어진 ARIMA 모형과 그 예측정확성을 비교 분석함으로써 SARIMA 모형의 정확성을 확인하였다. 현재 국내교통수요를 예측하는 부문에 있어서 SARIMA 모형을 활용한 경우는 극히 드물다. 또한 공항의 총 여객수요나 화물량이 아닌 항공노선의 수요예측에 관한 연구 역시 찾아보기 힘들다. 이러한 상황 하에서, SARIMA 모형을 활용하여 인천국제공항 발 유럽노선의 항공화물 수요를 예측한 본 연구는 상당히 큰 의미가 있다고 생각된다.

Keywords

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