Abstract

It was compared the estimated parameters by the surplus production from three different models, i.e., three types (Schaefer, Gulland, and Schnute) of the traditional surplus production models, a stock production model incorporating covariates (ASPIC) model and a maximum entropy (ME) model. We also evaluated the performance of models in the estimation of their parameters. The maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of small yellow croaker (Pseudosciaena polyactis) in Korean waters ranged from 35,061 metric tons (mt) by Gulland model to 44,844mt by ME model, and fishing effort at MSY ($f_{MSY}$) ranged from 262,188hauls by Schnute model to 355,200hauls by ME model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) for small yellow croaker was obtained from the Gulland surplus production model, while the highest RMSE was from Schnute model. However, the highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was from the ME model, but the ASPIC model yielded the lowest coefficient. On the other hand, the MSY of Kapenta (Limnothrissa miodon) ranged from 16,880 mt by ASPIC model to 25,373mt by ME model, and $f_{MSY}$, from 94,580hauls by ASPIC model to 225,490hauls by Schnute model. In this case, both the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and the highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$) were obtained from the ME model, which showed relatively better fits of data to the model, indicating that the ME model is statistically more stable and robust than other models. Moreover, the ME model could provide additional ecologically useful parameters such as, biomass at MSY ($B_{MSY}$), carrying capacity of the population (K), catchability coefficient (q) and the intrinsic rate of population growth (r).

Keywords

• Surplus production;
• Maximum entropy;
• ASPIC;
• Maximum sustainable yield;
• Fishing effort at MSY