Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회 논문집)

Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회)
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Assessment of Rainfall Simulated on RCP Scenarios for Disaster Management

RCP 시나리오에 의한 모의 강수의 방재 분야 적용성 평가

  • 박민규 (중원대학교 방재안전공학과) ;
  • 박무종 (한서대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 윤정수 (고려대학교 건축사회환경공학과)
  • Received : 2013.09.29
  • Accepted : 2013.10.07
  • Published : 2013.10.31
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Abstract

This study assessed the daily rainfall simulated on RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios for disaster management. First, in the result that compared characteristic of the simulated daily rainfall with characteristic of the observed daily rainfall, annual rainfall and annual maximum daily rainfall estimated from the simulated daily rainfall was similar to those estimated from the observed daily rainfall. But monthly rainfall and rainy days of the simulated daily rainfall did not reflect the characteristic of the observed daily rainfall. And in the result that compared the simulated rainfall with the observed rainfall during 2000 yr~2011 yr, annual maximum daily rainfall and rainy days of the simulated rainfall was different from those of the observed rainfall. Finally, the simulated rainfall had smaller probability rainfall than the observed rainfall in certain rainfall point.

본 연구에서는 RCP 시나리오에 의해 모의된 일강수의 방재분야에 대한 적용성을 평가하였다. 먼저, 관측 강수의 특성과 모의 강수의 특성을 비교하였다. 모의된 강수량으로부터 얻은 연강수량과 연최대일강수량은 관측 자료의 특성을 상대적으로 잘 일치하는 것으로, 월별 강수량 및 강수일수의 경우 상대적으로 차이가 큰 것으로 나타났다. 2000년~2011년 기간에 대해 관측 강수와 모의 강수를 비교한 결과에서는 강수 일수의 RCP 시나리오에 의한 결과를 일부 보정해야 할 필요성이 있음을 확인하였다. 마지막으로 관측 연최대일강수량과 모의 연최대일강수량으로부터 확률강우량을 추정하였다. 그 결과 모의 일강수자료로부터 추정된 확률강우량이 관측 일강수로부터 추정된 확률강우량과 유사하거나 크게 나타나나 일부 지점에서는 작게 나타나 천편일률적인 증가경향이 있다고 보기 어려운 것으로 확인되었다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 기상청

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