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Development and Application of an Storm Identification Algorithm that Conceptualizes Storms by Elliptical Shape

타원체로 모형화된 폭풍우 판별 알고리즘의 개발 및 적용

  • Cho, Huidae (Staff Water Resources Engineer, Dewberry) ;
  • Kim, Dongkyun (Department of Civil Engineering, Hongik University) ;
  • Lee, Kanghee (Department of Civil Engineering, Hongik University) ;
  • Lee, Jinsu (Department of Civil Engineering, Hongik University) ;
  • Lee, Dongryul (Department of Water Resources Engineering, Korea Institute of Construction Technology)
  • 조희대 (미 듀베리 사 수자원부) ;
  • 김동균 (홍익대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 이강희 (홍익대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 이진수 (홍익대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 이동률 (건설기술연구원 수자원연구실)
  • Received : 2013.08.08
  • Accepted : 2013.09.02
  • Published : 2013.10.31

Abstract

A storm identification algorithm conceptualizing the storm with an elliptical shape was developed. The developed algorithm identifies the center, major and minor axis, and the inclination angle of the ellipse that contains the maximum volume of rainfall for a given area using the isolated particle swarm optimization algorithm. The developed algorithm was applied to radar precipitation imagery of 10 major storms observed in Korea during the year 2008 and 2012. The algorithm successfully identified the storm shapes for all time steps of all 10 major storms. The following conclusion was drawn from the result of the storm identification: (1) as the size of the ellipse becomes smaller, the diversity of the storm shape increased, and the diversity decreased as the size of the ellipse increases; (2) the temporal variation of the storm center identified by the ellipse is not always continuous; (3) the tracking capability of the algorithm is expected to be improved as the center and the shape of the ellipse at the previous time step is considered in the objective function of the optimization algorithm.

본 연구에서는 폭풍우를 타원으로 개념화한 폭풍우 추적기법을 개발하였다. 개발된 폭풍우 추적 기법은 폭풍우의 형상을 일정한 면적을 가진 타원으로 가정하여, 중심의 좌표, 장축의 길이, 기울어짐 각도를 갖는 것으로 정의한 후, 타원이 포함하는 강우의 총량을 목적함수로 하여 고립종기반 입자군집최적화 알고리즘을 적용, 주어진 강우장 안에서 최대강우를 포함하고 있는 타원을 판별한다. 총 10개의 선별된 폭풍우에 알고리즘을 적용한 결과, 모든 폭풍우의 모든 시간단계에 대하여 최대강우량을 가진 타원을 추적할 수 있었으며, 다음과 같은 결론을 얻을 수 있었다. (1) 타원의 크기가 작은 경우, 다양한 형상과 각도로 최대강우타원이 판별되었으며, 그 다양성은 타원의 크기가 커지면서 줄어들었다. (2) 최대강우포함타원의 중심 위치의 시공간적인 연속성이 항상 보장되지는 않는다. (3) 이전 시간대의 타원의 위치 및 형상을 목적함수의 설정에 고려함으로써 알고리즘의 폭풍우 추적성능을 향상시킬 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Grant : 수문레이더 기반 홍수예경보 및 폭설 추정 플랫폼 개발

Supported by : 한국건설기술연구원

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