Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction (한국건축시공학회지)

The Korean Institute of Building Construction (한국건축시공학회)
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Prospecting the Market of the Modular Housing Using the Nonlinear Forecasting Models

비선형 예측모형을 활용한 모듈러주택 시장전망

  • Park, Nam-Cheon (Construction Management & Economy Research Division, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology(KICT)) ;
  • Kim, Kyoon-Tai (Construction Management & Economy Research Division, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology(KICT)) ;
  • Kim, In-Moo (Department of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University) ;
  • Kim, Seok-Jong (Power Planning Dept, Korea Power Exchange)
  • Received : 2014.10.30
  • Accepted : 2014.11.18
  • Published : 2014.12.20
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Abstract

Recently, following the application of modular housing techniques to not only residential sector, but also to business sector, the scope of modular housing market b expanding. In the case of other developed countries, such markets are entering into the maturity stage, though the market in Korea is not fully formed yet. Thus, it is difficult to check its trend to estimated mid- to long-term prospects of the market. In this context, the study predicted demand of the modular housing market by using a non-linear prediction model based on time series analysis. To get the prospects for the modular housing market, the quantity of housing supply was estimated based on the estimated quantity of newly built housings, and assumed that a portion of the supplied quantity would be the demand for modular housings. Based on the assumption of demand for modular housings, several scenarios were analyzed and the prospects of the modular housing market was obtained by utilizing the non-linear prediction model.

최근 모듈러주택 시장은 주거시설 뿐만 아니라 업무시설등에 적용되면서 시장영역이 확대되고 있다. 해외 선진국의 경우 성숙단계로 접어들고 있으며, 국내의 경우 시장이 형성되어 있지 않기 때문에 중 장기 시장 전망을 위한 추세 파악에 어려움이 있다. 이에 본 연구는 시계열 분석을 기반으로 비선형 예측모형을 활용하여 국내 모듈러주택의 시장수요를 전망하였다. 모듈러주택 시장수요 전망은 신규 주택 건설에 대한 수요량 추정 결과를 기반으로 주택 공급량을 파악하고 주택공급량의 일부를 모듈러주택 수요로 가정하여 시나리오분석을 하였으며, 비선형 예측모형을 활용하여 모듈러주택 시장 전망을 하였다.

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References

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