Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회지)

Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회)
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Estimating Stand Volume Pinus densiflora Forest Based on Climate Change Scenario in Korea

미래 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 우리나라 소나무 임분의 재적 추정

  • Kim, Moonil (Division of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Lee, Woo-Kyun (Division of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Guishan, Cui (Division of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Nam, Kijun (Division of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Yu, Hangnan (Division of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Choi, Sol-E (Division of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Kim, Chang-Gil (Korea Rural Economic Institute) ;
  • Gwon, Tae-Seong (Division of Forest Ecology, Korea Forest Research Institute)
  • 김문일 (고려대학교 환경생태공학부) ;
  • 이우균 (고려대학교 환경생태공학부) ;
  • ;
  • ;
  • ;
  • 최솔이 (고려대학교 환경생태공학부) ;
  • 김창길 (한국농촌경제연구원) ;
  • 권태성 (국립산림과학원 산림생태연구과)
  • Received : 2013.08.14
  • Accepted : 2014.01.29
  • Published : 2014.03.31
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Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to measure spatio-temporal variation of forest tree volume based on the RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 scenario, targeting on Pinus densiflora forests which is the main tree species in South Korea. To estimate nationwide scale, $5^{th}$ forest type map and National Forest Inventory data were used. Also, to reflect the impact of change in place and climate on growth of forest trees, growth model reflecting the climate and topography features were applied. The result of the model validation, which compared the result of the model with the forest statistics of different cities and provinces, showed a high suitability. Considering the continuous climate change, volume of Pinus densiflora forest is predicted to increase from $131m^3/ha$ at present to $212.42m^3/ha$ in the year of 2050. If the climate maintains as the present, volume is predicted to increase to $221.92m^3/ha$. With the climate change, it is predicted that most of the region, except for some of the alpine region, will have a decrease in growth rate of Pinus densiflora forest. The growth rate of Pinus densiflora forest will have a greater decline, especially in the coastal area and the southern area. With the result of this study, it will be possible to quantify the effect of climate change on the growth of Pinus densiflora forest according to spatio-temporal is possible. The result of the study can be useful in establishing the forest management practices, considering the adaptation of climate change.

본 연구는 우리나라 주요 수종인 소나무림을 대상으로 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 시나리오에 따른 임목 재적의 시 공간적 변이를 예측하기 위해 수행되었다. 전국 규모의 예측을 위해 5차임상도와 국가산림자원조사 자료를 이용하였으며, 기후와 공간의 변이가 임목 생장에 미치는 영향을 반영하기 위해 기상 및 지형인자를 반영한 생장모형을 적용하였다. 모형의 검증을 위해 시, 도별 산림통계와 모형 결과를 비교한 결과, 비교적 높은 적합도를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 기후변화를 고려하였을 때, 소나무림의 임분 재적은 현재 $131m^3/ha$에서 2050년에는 $212.42m^3/ha$까지 증가 할 것으로 예측되었으며, 현재의 기후가 유지될 경우에는 $221.92m^3/ha$까지 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 기후변화의 영향으로 인해 일부 고산지대를 제외한 대부분의 지역에서 소나무림의 생장률이 감소할 것으로 예측되었으며, 특히 해안지역과 남부지역에서 생장률의 감소가 클 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구결과를 통해 기후변화가 소나무림 생장에 미치는 영향을 시 공간에 따라 정량화 할 수 있었으며, 이는 기후변화 적응을 고려한 산림관리 및 시업계획을 수립하는데 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

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