Journal of Distribution Science (유통과학연구)

Korea Distribution Science Association (한국유통과학회)
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Development of an Overseas Real Estate Valuation Model Considering Changes in Population Structure

  • Gu, Seung-Hwan (Department of Industrial & Information Systems, Graduate School of Public Policy and Information Technology, Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Kim, Doo-Suk (Department of Industrial & Information Systems Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Ping, Wang (Department of Industrial & Information Systems, Graduate School of Public Policy and Information Technology, Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Jang, Seong-Yong (Department of Industrial & Information Systems Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology)
  • Received : 2014.01.03
  • Accepted : 2014.03.17
  • Published : 2014.03.30
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Abstract

Purpose - Aging and fewer economically active people have challenged the assumption of continuous population increases. A new real estate valuation methodology reflecting changes in population structure is thus needed. Research design, data, and methodology - The relationship between demographic change and changes in real estate prices is analyzed using ordinary least squares (OLS) to estimate the parameters, and a population structure change (PSC)-Binomial Option Model is developed to assess the volatility of the estimated parameters. Results based on Seoul and Shanghai data are compared. Results - Results of the DCF method indicate that investing in Seoul is better than investing in Shanghai, but the binomial option indicates the opposite. The PSC-binomial option model, reflecting changes in population structure, yields higher values (24.6 million won in Seoul and 43.3 million won in Shanghai) than those given by the binomial option model. Conclusions - This study indicates that applying changes in population structure to existing research, such as in the binomial option model, represents a more accurate real estate valuation method. Results demonstrate that the new model is more accurate than existing models such as the DCF or binomial option.

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