KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Estimation of High Resolution Daily Precipitation Using a Modified PRISM Model

개선된 PRISM 모형을 이용한 고해상도 일강수량 추정

  • 김종필 ((재) APEC 기후센터) ;
  • 이우섭 ((재) APEC 기후센터) ;
  • 조현곤 (경북대학교 건설환경에너지공학부) ;
  • 김광섭 (경북대학교 건설환경에너지공학부)
  • Received : 2013.12.20
  • Accepted : 2014.05.30
  • Published : 2014.08.01
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Abstract

This study modified the Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and investigated the applicability of the modified model (M-PRISM) in estimating $1km{\times}1km$ gridded daily precipitation over South Korea. The model parameters of M-PRISM were estimated by regression curves and were validated using the Jackknife method at the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) stations. The results indicate that M-RPISM shows better performance in estimating the frequency of daily precipitation than PRISM while M-PRISM has similar performance to PRISM in estimating the daily precipitation amount. Thus the M-PRISM model proposed in this study can be very useful to estimate high resolution daily precipitation.

본 연구에서는 M-PRISM 모형을 이용하여 $1km{\times}1km$ 공간해상도 일강수량 추정에 대한 적용성을 검토하였다. 또한 회귀모형을 이용하여 M-PRISM 모형 매개변수를 추정하였으며, 잭나이프 방법을 이용하여 모형을 검증하였다. 기상청 385개 강수 관측지점에 대하여 M-PRISM을 이용하여 일강수량을 추정하고 PRISM 모형과 비교하였다. 비교결과, 강수의 정량적 크기를 추정에서는 두 모형에서 뚜렷한 차이를 찾아볼 수 없었으나, 강수의 발생빈도 추정에 있어서는 M-PRISM 모형이 더 우수한 결과를 나타내었다. 따라서 본 연구에서 제안한 M-PRISM 모형은 고해상도의 일강수량을 추정함에 있어서 매우 유용하게 사용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

References

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