Journal of Korea Planning Association (국토계획)

Korea Planning Association (대한국토도시계획학회)
권호 표지

Risk Assessment of Potential Inundation Due to Sea Level Rise Using Bayesian Network

Bayesian Network를 이용한 해수면 상승에 따른 잠재적 침수위험 평가

  • 박상진 (서울대학교 대학원 생태조경.지역시스템 공학부) ;
  • 이동근 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템 공학부) ;
  • 성선용 (서울대학교 환경대학원) ;
  • 정태용 (KDI 국제정책대학원)
  • Received : 2013.11.25
  • Accepted : 2014.02.07
  • Published : 2014.04.30
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

In the coming years, coastal areas will be affected by rising sea levels due to climate change. Korea is surrounded by water on three sides and has many big cities around its coastal zone. Thus, Korea must be prepared for various effects that may be caused by rising sea levels. Among the possible effects of rising sea levels are inundation, coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, and biological effects. We particularly focused on the impact of inundation and assessed potential inundation risks. Finding potentially vulnerable areas is the core objective of the present study. The following variables were collected and selected from a literature review: rising sea levels, significant wave height, mean tide range, slope, and elevation. Bayesian Networks (BNs) were used to find potentially vulnerable areas, as BNs allow diverse variables to be reflected to predict coastal change, probabilities to be predicted, and they quantify uncertainty based on probabilities. Assessing coastal vulnerability using BNs is a meaningful approach, as they consider various aspects of the situation. The probability of potential inundation was drawn from the results and showed areas' probability for being at risk. In conclusion, this research is significant because it identifies areas vulnerable to potential inundation in the coastal zone. The method could be applied in other cases of coastal urban planning that consider the impact of future climate change.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 환경부

References

  1. 기상청, 2012, "기후변화 시나리오 이해 및 활용사례집", 서울. Korea Meteorological Administration, 2012, "Casebook for Understand and Use of Climate Change Scenarios", Seoul.
  2. 김장수, 2013. "기후변화에 의한 해수면 상승에 따른 태안해안지역 침수 및 침식 취약성 평가", 공주대학교 대학원 박사학위논문. Kim Jang su, 2013, "Vulnerability Assessment for Inundation and Erosion under the Sea-level Rise due to Climate Change in Taean Coastal Area", Ph.D. Dissertation, Kongju University
  3. 육근형, 정지호, 안용성., 2011. 해수면상승에 따른 연안취약성 평가모형연구, 서울: 한국해양수산개발원. K.H.Yook, J.H.Jung, Y.S.Ann, 2011, A Study on the Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Model to Sea Level Rise, Seoul: Korea Maritime Institute.
  4. 이동욱, 부양수, 2011. "해수면 상승 시나리오에 따른 제주연안지역 건설시설물의 영향 분석"."대한토목학회지", 31(2D): 267-274. D.W.Lee, Y.S.Bu, 2011, "Analysis on Effect of Construction Facilities depending on a Scenario of Sea level Rise around Jeju Coastal Area", Korean Society of Civil Engineers, 31(2D): 267-274.
  5. 장태수, 한종규，김성필，장동호, 2009, "항공LiDAR 자료를 이용한 슈퍼태풍 내습시 해운대 해수욕장 인근 도심지역 침수피해 규모 추정". "한국공간정보학회지", 17: 341-350 T.S.Jang, S.K.Han, S.P.Kim, D.H.Jang, 2009. "Estimation of Inundation Damages of Urban area Around Haeundae Beach Induced by Super Storm Surge Using Airborne LiDAR Data", Journal of Korea Spatial Information Society, 17: 341-350
  6. 장동호, 김찬수, 박지훈., 2010. "다중시기 위성영상을 활용한 충남해안지역의 해수면 상승에 따른 침수위험성 평가","한국사진지리학회지", 20:71-83 D.H.Jang, C.S.Kim, J.H.Park, 2010, "Assessment of Flood Risk under Rise of Sea Level in Chungnam Coastal Area Using Multi-temporal Satellite Imagery Data", Journal of the Association of Korean Photo-Geographers, 20; 71-83
  7. 장동호, 정종관, 손석원, 홍기병, 2008. 서해안 해수면상승에 따른 영향 및 대책, 충남: 충남발전연구원. D.H.Jang, J.G.Jung, S.W.Son, K.B.Hong, 2008, Impacts and Strategy due to Sea level Rise in West Coastal Area, Chungnam: Chungnam Development Institute
  8. 최충익, 임월시, 이숙희, 김준형, 2012. "연안도시기후변화적응을 위한 법제도적 고찰","도시행정학보", 25:325-346 C.I.Choi, W.S.Yim, S.H.Lee, J.H.Kim, 2012, "Institutional Approach for Coastal Cities' Adaptation to Climate Change," Journal of the Korean Urban Management Association, 25: 325-346
  9. 홍성기, 강영훈, 이한석, 2013. "부산 영도 해안의 해수면 상승에 따른 침수대책 연구","한국항해항만학회지", 37(4): 409-418 S.K.Hong, Y.H.Kang, H.S.Lee, 2013, "A Study on Flooding Prevention Scheme due to Sea Level Rise at Young-do Coast in Busan", Journal Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research, 37(4): 409-418
  10. Alpar, B, 2009. "Vulnerability of Turkish coasts to accelerated sea-level rise", Geomorphology, 107(1-2):58-63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.05.021
  11. Cooper, J., & Pilkey, O., 2004. "Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun Rule", Global and planetary change, 43(3-4): 157-171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.07.001
  12. Dasgupta, S. & Laplante, B. & Murray, S. & Wheeler, D., 2011. "Exposure of developing countries to sea-level rise and storm surges", Climatic Change, 106:549-579
  13. David Heckerman, 1995. A Tutorial on Learning With Bayesian Networks, Microsoft Research: Technology Division Microsoft Corporation.
  14. D. S. Suresh Babu & Siva Sivalingam & Terry Machado, 2012. "Need for adaptation strategy against global sea level rise: an example from Saudi coast of Arabian gulf", Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 17:821-836 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-011-9346-2
  15. Peter Kareiva, 2011, Natural Capital : The Theory and Practice of Mapping Ecosystem Services, U.K. : Oxford University Press.
  16. Gutierrez, B., Plant, N., & Thieler, E., 2011. "A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise", Journal of Geophysical Research, 116:1-15
  17. Hapke, C., & Plant, N., 2010. "Predicting coastal cliff erosion using a Bayesian probabilistic model", Marine geology, 278:140-149 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2010.10.001
  18. Nicholls, R., 2007. Adaptation Options for 2 Coastal Areas and Infrastructure : 3 An Analysis for 2030, U.K. : University of Southampton.
  19. Pendleton, E. & Elizabeth A. B Robert Thieler & S. Jeffress Williams, 2010. "Importance of coastal change variables in determining vulnerability to sea-and lake-level change", Journal of Coastal Research, 26:176-183
  20. Yoo, G., Hwang, J., & Choi, C., 2011, "Development and application of a methodology for vulnerability assessment of climate change in coastal cities", Ocean & Coastal Management, 54:524-534 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2011.04.001
  21. Sadoddin, A., & Letcher, R., 2005. "A Bayesian decision network approach for assessing the ecological impacts of salinity management", Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 69:162-176 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2005.02.020
  22. http://en.wikipedia.org/