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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Linear and Nonlinear Trends of Extreme Temperatures in Korea

한반도 극한 기온의 선형 및 비선형 변화 경향

  • Kim, Sang-Wook (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Song, Kanghyun (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Seo-Yeon (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Son, Seok-Woo (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Franzke, C. (Meteorologisches Institut Universitat Hamburg)
  • 김상욱 (서울대학교 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 송강현 (서울대학교 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 김서연 (서울대학교 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 손석우 (서울대학교 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부) ;
  • Received : 2014.05.15
  • Accepted : 2014.07.04
  • Published : 2014.09.30
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Abstract

This study explores the long-term trends of surface air temperatures in 11 KMA stations over the period of 1960~2012. Both linear and nonlinear trends are examined for the $95^{th}$, $50^{th}$, and $5^{th}$ percentiles of daily maximum ($T_{max}$) and minimum temperatures ($T_{min}$) by using quantile regression method. It is found that in most stations linear trends of $T_{max}$ and $T_{min}$ are generally stronger in winter than in summer, and warming trend of the $5^{th}$ percentile temperature (cold extreme) is stronger than that of the $95^{th}$ percentile temperature (warm extreme) in both seasons. The nonlinear trends, which are evaluated by the second order polynomial fitting, show a strong nonlinearity in winter. Specifically, winter temperatures have increased until 2000s but slightly decreased afterward in all percentiles. This contrasts with the $95^{th}$ and $50^{th}$ percentiles of summer $T_{min}$ that show a decreasing trend until 1980s then an increasing trend. While this result is consistent with a seasonal dependence of the recent global warming hiatus, most of the nonlinear trends are statistically insignificant, making a quantitative attribution of nonlinear temperature trends challenging.

Keywords

References

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  4. Abrupt Decrease of Wintertime Cold Nights in Korea in the Late 1980s vol.55, pp.1, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-018-0057-4
  5. Correction to: Abrupt Decrease of Wintertime Cold Nights in Korea in the Late 1980s vol.55, pp.3, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-019-00121-0