Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment (한국물환경학회지)

Korean Society on Water Environment (한국물환경학회)
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Evaluation and Application of CLUE-S Model for Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Future Land use Change in Total Water Pollution Load Management System

오염총량관리제의 시공간적 미래 토지이용 변화분석을 위한 CLUE-S 모델의 적용 및 평가

  • Ryu, Jichul (Watershed and Total Load Management Research Division, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Ahn, Ki Hong (Watershed and Total Load Management Research Division, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Han, Mideok (Watershed and Total Load Management Research Division, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Hwang, Hasun (Watershed and Total Load Management Research Division, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Choi, Jaewan (Regional Infrastructure Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Yong Seok (Watershed and Total Load Management Research Division, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Lim, Kyoung Jae (Regional Infrastructure Engineering, Kangwon National University)
  • 류지철 (국립환경과학원 유역총량연구과) ;
  • 안기홍 (국립환경과학원 유역총량연구과) ;
  • 한미덕 (국립환경과학원 유역총량연구과) ;
  • 황하선 (국립환경과학원 유역총량연구과) ;
  • 최재완 (강원대학교 지역건설공학과) ;
  • 김용석 (국립환경과학원 유역총량연구과) ;
  • 임경재 (강원대학교 지역건설공학과)
  • Received : 2014.05.31
  • Accepted : 2014.07.22
  • Published : 2014.07.30
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to predict the spatio-temporal changes in land uses and to evaluate land-based pollutant loads in the future under Total Water Pollution Load Management System using CLUE-S model. For these ends, sensitive parameters of conversion elasticities in CLUE-S model were calibrated and these calibrated parameters of conversion elasticities, level II land cover map of year 2009, and 7 driving factors of land use changes were used in predicting future land uses in 2002 with two scenarios(Scenario 1: non area restriction, Scenario 2: area restriction). This projected land use map of 2020 was used to estimate land-based pollutant loads. It was expected that urban areas will increase in 2020 from both scenarios 1 and 2. In Scenario 1, urban areas are expected to increase within greenbelt areas and deforest would be expected. Under Scenario 2, these phenomena were not expected. Also the results of estimation of BOD and TP pollutant loads, the BOD difference between scenarios 1 and 2 was 719 kg/day in urban areas and TP difference was 17.60 kg/day in urban areas. As shown in this study, it was found that the CLUE-S model can be useful in future pollutant load estimations because of its capability of projecting future land uses considering various socio-economic driving factors and area-restriction factors, compared with conventionally used land use prediction model.

Keywords

References

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