Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment (한국물환경학회지)

Korean Society on Water Environment (한국물환경학회)
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A Study on the Operational Forecasting of the Nakdong River Flow with a Combined Watershed and Waterbody Model

실시간 낙동강 흐름 예측을 위한 유역 및 수체모델 결합 적용 연구

  • Na, Eun Hye (Water Quality Control Center, Water Environment Research Department, National Institute of Environment Research) ;
  • Shin, Chang Min (Water Quality Control Center, Water Environment Research Department, National Institute of Environment Research) ;
  • Park, Lan Joo (Water Quality Control Center, Water Environment Research Department, National Institute of Environment Research) ;
  • Kim, Duck Gil (Water Quality Control Center, Water Environment Research Department, National Institute of Environment Research) ;
  • Kim, Kyunghyun (Water Quality Control Center, Water Environment Research Department, National Institute of Environment Research)
  • 나은혜 (국립환경과학원 물환경연구부 수질통합관리센터) ;
  • 신창민 (국립환경과학원 물환경연구부 수질통합관리센터) ;
  • 박란주 (국립환경과학원 물환경연구부 수질통합관리센터) ;
  • 김덕길 (국립환경과학원 물환경연구부 수질통합관리센터) ;
  • 김경현 (국립환경과학원 물환경연구부 수질통합관리센터)
  • Received : 2013.11.22
  • Accepted : 2013.12.26
  • Published : 2014.01.30
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Abstract

A combined watershed and receiving waterbody model was developed for operational water flow forecasting of the Nakdong river. The Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) was used for simulating the flow rates at major tributaries. To simulate the flow dynamics in the main stream, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, EFDC was used with the inputs derived from the HSPF simulation. The combined models were calibrated and verified using the data measured under different hydrometeological and hydraulic conditions. The model results were generally in good agreement with the field measurements in both calibration and verification. The 7-days forecasting performance of water flows in the Nakdong river was satisfying compared with model calibration results. The forecasting results suggested that the water flow forecasting errors were primarily attributed to the uncertainties of the models, numerical weather prediction, and water release at the hydraulic structures such as upstream dams and weirs. From the results, it is concluded that the combined watershed-waterbody model could successfully simulate the water flows in the Nakdong river. Also, it is suggested that integrating real-time data and information of dam/weir operation plans into model simulation would be essential to improve forecasting reliability.

Keywords

References

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