Journal of Wetlands Research (한국습지학회지)

Korean Wetlands Society (한국습지학회)
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Water Quality Analysis of Hongcheon River Basin Under Climate Change

기후변화에 따른 홍천강 유역의 수질 변화 분석

  • Kim, Duckhwan (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha university) ;
  • Hong, Seung Jin (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha university) ;
  • Kim, Jungwook (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha university) ;
  • Han, Daegun (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha university) ;
  • Hong, Ilpyo (Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Kim, Hung Soo (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha university)
  • 김덕환 (인하대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 홍승진 (인하대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 김정욱 (인하대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 한대건 (인하대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 홍일표 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원.하천 연구소) ;
  • 김형수 (인하대학교 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2015.08.10
  • Accepted : 2015.09.24
  • Published : 2015.11.30
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Abstract

Impacts of climate change are being observed in the globe as well as the Korean peninsula. In the past 100 years, the average temperature of the earth rose about 0.75 degree in celsius, while that of Korean peninsula rose about 1.5 degree in celsius. The fifth Assessment Report of IPCC(Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change) predicts that the water pollution will be aggravated by change of hydrologic extremes such as floods and droughts and increase of water temperature (KMA and MOLIT, 2009). In this study, future runoff was calculated by applying climate change scenario to analyze the future water quality for each targe period (Obs : 2001 ~ 2010, Target I : 2011 ~ 2040, Target II : 2041 ~ 2070, Target III : 2071 ~ 2100) in Hongcheon river basin, Korea. In addition, The future water quality was analyzed by using multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural networks after flow-duration curve analysis. As the results of future water quality prediction in Hongcheon river basin, we have known that BOD, COD and SS will be increased at the end of 21 century. Therefore, we need consider long-term water and water quality management planning and monitoring for the improvement of water quality in the future. For the prediction of more reliable future water quality, we may need consider various social factors with climate components.

기후변화로 인한 영향은 한반도뿐만 아니라 전 지구적으로 관찰되고 있다. 지난 100년간(1911 ~ 2010년) 전 지구적으로 $0.75^{\circ}C$가 상승한 반면, 한반도의 평균기온은 약 $1.5^{\circ}C$가 상승하였다. IPCC(Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change)에서 발간한 5차 기술보고서에 수온의 증가와 홍수 및 가뭄을 포함하는 극한 수문 사상의 변화는 수질에 영향을 미쳐 여러 가지 형태의 수질 오염을 보다 악화시킬 것으로 전망되고 있다(KMA and MOLIT, 2009). 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 강원도 북한강에 위치한 홍천강 유역의 수질 변화를 분석하기 위하여 기후변화 시나리오 자료를 적용하여 미래유량을 각 목표 기간별로(Obs : 2001 ~ 2010년, Target I : 2011 ~ 2040년, Target II : 2041 ~ 2070년, Target III : 2071 ~ 2100년) 산정하였다. 또한, 수질 변화를 예측하기 위하여 미래유량을 토대로 유황분석을 시행한 후 다중회귀분석모형과 인공신경망모형을 통해 미래 수질변화를 분석하였다. 홍천강 유역의 수질예측 결과, 21세기 말 여름철에 생물학적 산소요구량, 화학적 산소요구량, 부유물질이 최대 16%, 13%, 15% 증가할 것으로 예측되어, 지속적이며 장기적인 수질 모니터링과 관리가 필요할 것으로 판단된다. 또한, 본 연구에서 사용한 기후자료뿐만 아니라 사회적 시나리오를 고려한다면 보다 신뢰성 있는 미래 수질 모의가 이루어질 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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