Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Quantitative Characterization of Historical Drought Events in Korea - Focusing on Drought Frequency Analysis in the Five Major Basins -

우리나라 과거 가뭄사상의 정량적 특성 분석 -5대강 유역의 가뭄빈도분석을 중심으로-

  • Lee, Joo-Heon (Dept. of Civil Engineering, Joongbu University) ;
  • Jang, Ho-Won (Dept. of Civil Engineering, Joongbu University) ;
  • Kim, Jong-Suk (Urban Flood Research Institute, University of Seoul) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Woong (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University)
  • 이주헌 (중부대학교 공과대학 토목공학과) ;
  • 장호원 (중부대학교 대학원 토목공학과) ;
  • 김종석 (서울시립대학교 도시홍수연구소) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교 공학대학 건설환경플랜트공학과)
  • Received : 2015.09.08
  • Accepted : 2015.10.20
  • Published : 2015.12.31
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Abstract

This study aims to investigate droughts from the magnitude perspective based on the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and the theory of runs applicable to quantitative analysis of drought in South Korea. In addition, the dry spell analysis was conducted on the drought history in the five major river basins of South Korea to obtain the magnitude, duration and severity of drought, and the quantitative evaluation has been made on historical droughts by estimating the return period using the SDF (Severity-Duration-Frequency) curve gained through drought frequency analysis. The analysis results showed that the return periods for droughts at the regional and major river basin scales were clearly identified. The return periods of severe drought that occurred around the major river basins in South Korea turn out to be mostly 30 to 50 years with the years of the worst drought in terms of severity being 1988 and 1994. In particular, South Korea experienced extremely severe droughts for two consecutive years during the period between 1994 and 1995. Drought in 2014 occurred in the Han River basin and was evaluated as the worst one in terms of severity and magnitude.

본 연구에서는 표준강수지수(SPI)를 이용하여 우리나라의 과거 가뭄사상을 규모적 관점에서 정량적 평가를 실시하였다. 이를 위하여, 5대강 권역에 대한 가뭄사상의 지속기간, 규모, 평균심도를 연속이론을 바탕으로 산정하였다. 또한 과거 가뭄사상의 재현기간을 추정하고 가뭄 평균심도-지속기간-빈도 곡선을 작성하기 위하여 가뭄빈도분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과, 우리나라에 발생했던 심한 가뭄의 재현기간은 대부분 30~50년으로 분석되었으며, 가뭄규모로 평가할 때 가장 가뭄이 심했던 해는 1988년과 1994년으로 나타났다. 특히, 1994년과 1995년에서는 2년 연속 가뭄이 발생하여 가장 극심했던 장기가뭄으로 분석되었다. 또한 2014년의 가뭄은 한강 권역을 중심으로 발생하였으며 가뭄의 규모와 평균심도 면에서 볼 때 우리나라 역사상 가장 극심했던 가뭄으로 평가되었다.

Keywords

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