Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development (농촌지도와개발)

Korean Society of Agricultural Extension (한국농촌지도학회)
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A Study on Onion Wholesale Price Forecasting Model

양파 출하시기 도매가격 예측모형 연구

  • Nam, Kuk-Hyun (Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Science, Seoul National University) ;
  • Choe, Young-Chan (Program in Regional Inform ation, Departm ent of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Seoul National University)
  • 남국현 (서울대학교 농업생명과학연구원) ;
  • 최영찬 (서울대학교 농경제사회학부 지역정보전공)
  • Received : 2015.11.13
  • Accepted : 2015.12.12
  • Published : 2015.12.31
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Abstract

This paper predicts the onion's cultivation areas, yields per unit area, and wholesale prices during ship dates by using wholesale price data from the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation, the production data from the Statistics Korea, and the weather data from the Korea Meteorological Administration with an ARDL model. By analyzing the data of wholesale price, rural household income and rural total earnings, onion cultivation areas in 2015 are estimated to be 21,035, 17,774 and 20,557(ha). In addition, onion yields per unit area of South Jeolla Province, North Gyeongsang Province, South Gyeongsang Province, Jeju Island, and the whole country in 2015 are estimated to be 5,980, 6,493, 6,543, 6,614, 6,139 (kg/10a) respectively. By using onion production's predictive value found from onion's cultivation areas and yields per unit area in 2015, the onion's wholesale prices in June are estimated to be 780 won, 1,100 won, and 820 won for each model. Predicted monthly price after the onion's ship dates is analyzed to exceed 1,000 won after August.

Keywords

References

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