Journal of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회지)

Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회)
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An Empirical Study on the Estimation of Adequate Debt ration in Korean Shipping Industry: Focused on Water Transport

한국 해운산업의 적정부채비율 추정을 위한 실증연구: 수상운송업을 중심으로

  • 배후석 (경성대학교 상경대학 회계학과)
  • Received : 2014.12.16
  • Accepted : 2015.02.17
  • Published : 2015.02.28
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Abstract

The concrete purpose of this study is to suggest actually a debt ratio to optimize the capital structure providing a kind of approach to estimate the proper debt ratio with an analytical model and empirical data in Korean shipping industry. The mathematical and analytical model is started from the first equation about ROE, return of net operating income on equity, with an independent variable, debt ratio. It is constructed with several parameters, ROS(return of operating income on sales), TAT(total assets turnover), and NFCL(net finance cost to liabilities). There could not be a certain relationship between debt ratio and ROS or TAT, while some correlation or causality between debt ratio and NFCL. In other words, most of firms with high debt ratio is likely to burden higher finance cost than others with low one. In this case, there is a linearity relationship between debt ratio and NFCL, so then the second equation considering this relation could be included within the analytical approach of this paper. To be short, if the criteria of adequate debt ratio has to be defined as some level of debt ratio to optimize ROE, the ROE could be illustrated as a quadratic equation to debt ratio from two equations. Next, this research estimated those parameters' numbers through the single regression method with data over 12 years of Korean shipping industry, and identified empirically the fact that optimal debt ratio would be approximately 400%. To conclude, if that industry's sales and operating incomes are stable, the debt ratio could be accepted until twice of 200% had forced in order to guarantee its financial safety in past time.

본 연구는 분석적 모형의 도출과 함께 실증적 자료를 통하여 해운산업의 적정부채비율을 추정 가능하게 하는 한 가지 접근방법을 제시하고 실제로 최적 자본구조를 위한 부채비율지표를 제시하는 데 구체적인 연구목적을 둔다. 그 분석적 모형은 독립변수를 부채비율로 하는 자기자본순영업이익률 계산식으로부터 출발한다. 관련모수는 매출액영업이익률, 총자산회전율과 순금융비율(금융비용대부채)로 구성되는데, 매출액영업이익률과 총자산회전률의 경우 부채비율과는 어떠한 상관관계가 존재한다고 보기 어렵지만 금융비용율은 부채비율과 상관관계 또는 인과관계가 존재한다고 볼 수 있다. 즉 부채비율이 높은 기업은 재무위험에 대한 대가로 무위험이자율보다 높은 대출금리를 부담해야 할 것이다. 이 경우 금융비용율과 부채비율 간에 1차 선형 관계가 존재할 것이고 이러한 관계를 고려하기 위한 방정식을 분석모형에 추가할 수 있다. 이러한 분석적 절차에 따라, 적정부채비율의 기준을 자기자본순영업이익률을 극대화하는 부채비율 수준으로 정의한다면, 두 식으로부터 통해 자기자본순영업이익률은 부채비율을 독립변수로 하는 2차함수로 나타낼 수 있다. 그리고 우리나라 수상운송업의 12년 자료를 기초로 회귀분석을 통하여 관련모수를 추정하고 최적부채비율을 산출한 바, 약 400%임을 확인하였다. 결론적으로, 우리나라 해운산업 부채비율의 경우, 매출과 영업이익이 안정적이라면, 과거 재무적 안전성을 담보하는 부채비율로 강제하였던 200%의 2배인 400%까지도 적정부채비율로 용인될 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

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  1. The Relationship between Working Capital Management and Profitability : evidence from Korean Shipping Industry vol.39, pp.3, 2015, https://doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2015.39.3.261