Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Application of Very Short-Term Rainfall Forecasting to Urban Water Simulation using TREC Method

TREC기법을 이용한 초단기 레이더 강우예측의 도시유출 모의 적용

  • Kim, Jong Pil (Water Resources and Environment Research Department, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Yoon, Sun Kwon (Climate Research Department, APEC Climate Center) ;
  • Kim, Gwangseob (School of Architectural, Civil, Environment, and Energy Engineering, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Moon, Young Il (Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Seoul, Urban Flood Research Institute)
  • 김종필 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구소) ;
  • 윤선권 (APEC기후센터 연구본부) ;
  • 김광섭 (경북대학교 공과대학 건설환경에너지공학부) ;
  • 문영일 (서울시립대학교 공과대학 토목공학과, 도시홍수연구소)
  • Received : 2015.03.19
  • Accepted : 2015.04.08
  • Published : 2015.05.31
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Abstract

In this study the very short-term rainfall forecasting and storm water forecasting using the weather radar data were implemented in an urban stream basin. As forecasting time increasing, the very short-term rainfall forecasting results show that the correlation coefficient was decreased and the root mean square error was increased and then the forecasting model accuracy was decreased. However, as a result of the correlation coefficient up to 60-minute forecasting time is maintained 0.5 or higher was obtained. As a result of storm water forecasting in an urban area, the reduction in peak flow and outflow volume with increasing forecasting time occurs, the peak time was analyzed that relatively matched. In the application of storm water forecasting by radar rainfall forecast, the errors has occurred that we determined some of the external factors. In the future, we believed to be necessary to perform that the continuous algorithm improvement such as simulation of rapid generation and disappearance phenomenon by precipitation echo, the improvement of extreme rainfall forecasting in urban areas, and the rainfall-runoff model parameter optimizations. The results of this study, not only urban stream basin, but also we obtained the observed data, and expand the real-time flood alarm system over the ungaged basins. In addition, it is possible to take advantage of development of as multi-sensor based very short-term rainfall forecasting technology.

본 연구에서는 기상레이더 자료를 이용하여 도시하천 유역을 대상으로 초단기 강우예측 및 홍수예측을 실시하였다. 초단기 강우예측 결과 선행시간이 증가함에 따라 관측 자료와의 상관계수가 감소하며, 평균제곱근오차는 증가하여 정확도가 감소하였으나, 선행시간 60분까지 상관계수가 0.5이상 유지되는 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 또한 강우예측 자료 적용에 의한 도시유출 분석결과, 선행시간 증가에 따른 첨두유량과 유출체적의 감소가 발생하였으나, 첨두시간은 비교적 일치하는 것으로 분석되었다. 레이더 예측 강우 적용을 통한 도시유출 분석결과, 관측 자료와의 오차가 발생하나 이는 여러 가지 외부적인 요인으로 판단되며, 추후 강수 에코의 급격한 생성과 소멸현상 모의, 국지성 강우 예측 성능 향상 등 지속적인 알고리즘 개선과 강우-유출 모형 매개변수 검 보정이 필요할 것으로 사료된다. 본 연구의 결과는 도시하천 유역뿐만 아니라 관측이 어려운 미계측 지역의 수문자료 확보 및 실시간 홍수 예 경보시스템 구축에 확장이 가능하며, 다양한 관측자료 기반 Multi-Sensor 초단기 강우예측 기반기술로의 활용이 가능하다.

Keywords

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