Atmosphere (대기)

Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Development of a Oak Pollen Emission and Transport Modeling Framework in South Korea

한반도 참나무 꽃가루 확산예측모델 개발

  • Lim, Yun-Kyu (Applied Meteorology Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Kim, Kyu Rang (Applied Meteorology Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Cho, Changbum (Applied Meteorology Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Kim, Mijin (Applied Meteorology Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Choi, Ho-seong (Applied Meteorology Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Han, Mae Ja (Applied Meteorology Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Oh, Inbo (Environmental Health Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine) ;
  • Kim, Baek-Jo (Applied Meteorology Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration)
  • 임윤규 (국립기상과학원 응용기상연구과) ;
  • 김규랑 (국립기상과학원 응용기상연구과) ;
  • 조창범 (국립기상과학원 응용기상연구과) ;
  • 김미진 (국립기상과학원 응용기상연구과) ;
  • 최호성 (국립기상과학원 응용기상연구과) ;
  • 한매자 (국립기상과학원 응용기상연구과) ;
  • 오인보 (울산대학교 의과대학 환경보건센터) ;
  • 김백조 (국립기상과학원 응용기상연구과)
  • Received : 2015.02.10
  • Accepted : 2015.04.22
  • Published : 2015.06.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Pollen is closely related to health issues such as allergenic rhinitis and asthma as well as intensifying atopic syndrome. Information on current and future spatio-temporal distribution of allergenic pollen is needed to address such issues. In this study, the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling (CMAQ) was utilized as a base modeling system to forecast pollen dispersal from oak trees. Pollen emission is one of the most important parts in the dispersal modeling system. Areal emission factor was determined from gridded areal fraction of oak trees, which was produced by the analysis of the tree type maps (1:5000) obtained from the Korea Forest Service. Daily total pollen production was estimated by a robust multiple regression model of weather conditions and pollen concentration. Hourly emission factor was determined from wind speed and friction velocity. Hourly pollen emission was then calculated by multiplying areal emission factor, daily total pollen production, and hourly emission factor. Forecast data from the KMA UM LDAPS (Korea Meteorological Administration Unified Model Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) was utilized as input. For the verification of the model, daily observed pollen concentration from 12 sites in Korea during the pollen season of 2014. Although the model showed a tendency of over-estimation in terms of the seasonal and daily mean concentrations, overall concentration was similar to the observation. Comparison at the hourly output showed distinctive delay of the peak hours by the model at the 'Pocheon' site. It was speculated that the constant release of hourly number of pollen in the modeling framework caused the delay.

Keywords

References

  1. Beggs, P. J., 2004: Impacts of climate change on aeroallergens: past and future. Clin. Exp. Aller., 34, 1507-1513. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2222.2004.02061.x
  2. Burkard, 2001: 7-day recording volumetric spore trap (http://www.burkard.co.uk/7dayst.htm).
  3. Chang, J. S., R. A. Brost, I. S. A. Isaksen, S. Madronich, P. Middleton, W. R. Stockwell, and C. J. Walcek, 1987: A three-dimensional eulerian acid deposition model: Physical concepts and formation. J. Geophys. Res., 92, 14681-14700. https://doi.org/10.1029/JD092iD12p14681
  4. D'Amato, G., L. Cecchi, S. Bonini, C. Nunes, I. Annesi-Maesano, H. Behrendt, G. Liccardi, T. Popov, and P. van Cauwenber, 2007: Allergenic pollen and pollen allergy in Europe. Allergy, 62, 976-990. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1398-9995.2007.01393.x
  5. Despres, V. R., and Coauthors, 2012: Primary biological aerosol particles in the atmosphere: a review. Tellus B, 64, 15598, doi:10.3402/tellusb.v64i0.15598.
  6. Efstathiou, C., S. Isukapalli, and P. Georgopoulos, 2011: A mechanistic modeling system for estimating largescale emissions and transport of pollen and co-allergens. Atmos. Environ., 45, 2260-2276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.12.008
  7. Emberlin, J., J. Mullins, J. Corden, W. Millington, M. Brooke, M. Savage, and S. Jones, 1997: The trend to earlier birch pollen seasons in the UK: A biotic response to changes in weather conditions. Grana, 36, 29-33. https://doi.org/10.1080/00173139709362586
  8. Esch, R. E., and R. K. Bush, 2003: Aerobiology of outdoor allergens. Mosby, Philadelphia, Pa, USA, 6th edition, 533-534.
  9. Greely, R., and J. D. Iversen, 1985: Wind as a geological process on Earth, Mars, Venus and Titan. Cambrigde University Press, New York.
  10. Helbig, N., B. Vogel, H. Vogel, and F. Fiedler, 2004: Numerical modeling of pollen dispersion on the regional scale. Aerobiologia, 3, 3-19.
  11. Jackson, S. T., and M. E. Lyford, 1999: Pollen dispersal models in quaternary plant ecology: assumptions, parameters, and prescriptions. The Botanical Review, 65, 40-61.
  12. Kim, K. R., K.-J. Park, H.-R. Lee, M. Kim, Y.-J. Choi, and J.-W. Oh, 2012: Development and evaluation of the forecast models for daily pollen allergy. Korean J. Agric. Forest Meteor., 14, 265-268 (in Korean with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.265
  13. Lewis, W. H., P. Vinay, and V. E. Zenger, 1983: Airborne and allergenic pollen of north america. The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore & London.
  14. NIMR, 2012: Advanced research on meteorological sciences-advanced research on bio-and industrial meteorology (I), 481 pp.
  15. NIMR, 2014: Advanced research on applied meteorologyadvanced research on bio-meteorology (II), 69 pp.
  16. Oh, I., Y. Kim, K.-R. Choi, M. Suzuki, and J. Lee, 2012: Pollen simulations in a coastal urban area of Ulsan, Korea: Preliminary results using WRF-CMAQ model, Proceeding of the 13th International Palynological Congress and 9th International Organization of Palaeobotany Conference, Tokyo, Japan, Paper No SS28-O05, 11 pp.
  17. Oh, I., M.-K. Hwang, J.-H. Bang, J.-W. Oh, K. R. Kim, and C.-B. Jo, 2014: Numerical simulation of oak pollen dispersion in the Seoul metropolitan region of Korea. Proceeding of the 10th International Congress of Aerobiology, Sydney, Australia, 30 pp.
  18. Oh, J.-W., 2009: Development of pollen concentration prediction models. J. Korean Med. Assoc., 52, 579-591 (in Korean with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.5124/jkma.2009.52.6.579
  19. Park, K.-J., H.-A. Kim, K. R. Kim, J.-W. Oh, S.-Y. Lee, and Y.-J. Choi, 2008: Characteristics of regional distribution of pollen concentration in Korea peninsula. Korean J. Agric. Forest Meteor., 10, 167-176 (in Korean with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2008.10.4.167
  20. Pfender, W., R. Graw, W. Bradley, M. Carney, and L. Maxwell, 2007: Emission rates, survival and modeled dispersal of viable pollen of creeping bentgrass. Crop Sci., 47, 2529-2539. https://doi.org/10.2135/cropsci2007.01.0030
  21. Reid, C. E., and J. L. Gamble, 2009: Aeroallergens, allergic disease, and climate change: impacts and adaption. EcoHealth, 6, 458-470. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-009-0261-x
  22. Schueler, S., and K. H. Schlunzen, 2006: Modeling of oak pollen dispersal on the landscape level with a mesoscale atmospheric model. Environ Model Assess, 11, 179-194. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-006-9044-8
  23. Seinfeld, J. H., and S. N. Pandis, 1998: Atmospheric chemistry and physics. John Wiley, New York.
  24. Sofiev, M., P. Siljamo, H. Ranta, and A. Rantio-Lehtimaki, 2006: Towards numerical forecasting of long-range air transport of birch pollen: theoretical considerations and a feasibility study. Int. J. Biometeorol., 50, 392-402. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-006-0027-x
  25. Veriankanite, L., P. Siljamo, M. Sofiev, I. Sauliene, and J. Kukkonen, 2010: Modeling analysis of source regions of long-range transported birch pollen that influences allergenic seasons in Lithuania. Aerobiologia, 26, 47-62. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10453-009-9142-6
  26. Vogel, H., A. Pauling, and B. Vogel, 2008: Numerical simulation of birch pollen dispersion with an operational weather forecast system. Int. J. Biometeorol., 52, 805-814. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-008-0174-3
  27. Wesely, M. L. and B. B. Hicks, 1977: Some factors that affect the deposition rated of sulfur dioxide and similar gases on vegetation. J. Air Pollution Control Assoc., 27, 1110-1117. https://doi.org/10.1080/00022470.1977.10470534
  28. Zhang, R., and Coauthors, 2014: Development of a regional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework for investigating the impact of climate change on allergic airway disease. Biogeosciences, 11, 1461-1478. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1461-2014
  29. Zink, K., H. Vogel, B. Vogel, D. Magyar, and C. Kottmeier, 2012: Modeling the dispersion of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. pollen with the model system COSMO-ART. Int. J. Biometeorol., 56, 669-680. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0468-8