KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Estimation of AADT Using Multiple Linear Regression in Isolated Area

다중선형 회귀분석을 이용한 고립지역에서의 AADT 추정방안 연구

  • Kim, Tae-woon (Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Oh, Ju-sam (Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology)
  • 김태운 (한국건설기술연구원 ICT 융합연구소) ;
  • 오주삼 (한국건설기술연구원 ICT 융합연구소)
  • Received : 2014.09.17
  • Accepted : 2015.05.19
  • Published : 2015.08.01
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Abstract

This study estimates future AADT using historical AADT and socio-economic factors in isolated area. Multiple linear regression method by socio-economic factors are lower MAPE and higher R-square than using historical AADT. Analysis of socio-economic factors influence AADT in isolated typical areas, varied socio-economic factors influence on AADT. In isolated coastal areas, oil price influence on AADT. AADT forecasting model in isolated area is excellent when analysising $R^2$ and MAPE. It is assume that estimation of AADT in isolated area using multiple linear regression is accurate because of a little passed traffic volume and traffic volume fluctuation.

본 연구에서는 고립지역의 과거 AADT 자료와 사회 경제지표를 활용하여 장래 AADT를 추정하였다. 과거 교통량 추이 활용 시와 사회 경제지표 활용 시 장래 AADT를 추정했으며, 사회 경제지표를 활용하여 다중회귀 분석방식을 통한 장래 AADT 추정 시 높은 설명력과 낮은 오차율을 보였다. 지리적 특성별 AADT에 미치는 사회 경제지표 분석 결과 고립일반지역은 다양한 사회 경제지표가 AADT에 영향을 미쳤으며, 고립해안지역은 유류가격과 연관성을 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 고립지역의 장래 AADT 추정 모형은 $R^2$, MAPE 분석 시 우수한 것으로 나타났다. 이는 고립지역에서는 통과 교통량이 적고 교통량 변동이 적기 때문에 사회 경제지표를 활용한 장래 AADT 추정방식이 정확하다고 볼 수 있다.

Keywords

References

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