Journal of Energy Engineering (에너지공학)

The Korean Society for Energy (한국에너지학회)
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The Supply Shortage Effects of Oil Refinery Industry in Korea

국내 정유산업의 공급지장효과 분석

  • Cho, Yong-Cheol (Department of Energy Policy, Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National University of Science & Technology) ;
  • Lee, Yong-Hwan (Department of Energy Policy, Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National University of Science & Technology) ;
  • Yoo, Seung-Hoon (Department of Energy Policy, Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National University of Science & Technology)
  • 조용철 (서울과학기술대학교 에너지환경대학원 에너지정책학과) ;
  • 이용환 (서울과학기술대학교 에너지환경대학원 에너지정책학과) ;
  • 유승훈 (서울과학기술대학교 에너지환경대학원 에너지정책학과)
  • Received : 2015.08.10
  • Accepted : 2015.09.16
  • Published : 2015.09.30
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Abstract

As the petroleum products produced from the Oil refinery industry (ORI), a national key industry in Korea, are supplied to other industries as an intermediate goods, the supply shortage of ORI has a large impact on the national economy. This paper attempts to analyze the supply shortage effects which are defined as the negative impact of one won of supply failure in the ORI on the production of other industries. To this end, an inter-industry analysis using an input-output (I-O) table describing inter-industry flow of intermediate goods is applied. More concretely, the supply-driven model is employed over the period 1990-2012. In addition, the results are compared with those for shipbuilding, semiconductor, and steel industries. The results show that the supply shortage effects are computed to be 0.9205 won when using 2012 I-O table. More specifically, the supply shortage effects on chemical products and transportation industries are computed to be 0.2113 and 0.1140, which are relatively large, The supply shortage effect of ORI is smaller than that of steel industry (1.4131 won), but larger than that of shipbuilding industry (0.0586 won) and that of semiconductor industry (0.1111 won).

국가 기간산업 중 하나인 정유산업은 산출물인 석유제품을 각 산업부문에 중간재로 공급하고 있으므로 석유제품의 공급지장이 국민경제에 미치는 영향은 큰 편이다. 이에 본 논문에서는 정유산업 산출물 1원 어치의 공급지장이 타 산업에 미치는 부정적 생산차질 효과를 의미하는 공급지장효과를 분석하고자 한다. 이를 위해 산업간 중간재의 흐름을 하나의 표로 나타낸 산업연관표를 활용한 산업연관분석을 적용하고자 한다. 보다 구체적으로는 공급유도형 모형을 활용하되 1990년부터 2012년까지를 분석대상 기간으로 한다. 아울러 조선산업, 반도체산업, 철강산업과 같은 타 국가 기간산업과의 비교분석도 수행한다. 분석결과 2012년 기준 정유산업의 공급지장효과는 0.9025원으로 분석되었다. 세부적으로 살펴보면 화학제품산업 및 운송서비스산업에 미치는 공급지장효과가 각각 0.2113원 및 0.1140원으로 비교적 큰 편이었다. 정유산업의 공급지장효과는 철강산업에 대한 값(1.4131원)보다는 작지만 조선산업(0.0586원) 및 반도체산업(0.1111원)에 비해서는 큰 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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