Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing (대한간호학회지)

Korean Society of Nursing Science (한국간호과학회)
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Non-linear System Dynamics Simulation Modeling of Adolescent Obesity: Using Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey

시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 청소년 비만의 비선형 시뮬레이션: 청소년 건강행태 온라인 조사 자료 활용

  • Lee, Hanna (College of Nursing Science, Kyung Hee University) ;
  • Park, Eun Suk (College of Nursing Science, Kyung Hee University) ;
  • Yu, Jae Kook (National Assembly Research Service) ;
  • Yun, Eun Kyoung (College of Nursing Science.East-West Nursing Research Institute, Kyung Hee University)
  • 이한나 (경희대학교 일반대학원 간호학과) ;
  • 박은숙 (경희대학교 일반대학원 간호학과) ;
  • 유재국 (국회입법조사처 경제산업조사실) ;
  • 윤은경 (경희대학교 간호과학대학.동서간호학연구소)
  • Received : 2015.03.05
  • Accepted : 2015.07.01
  • Published : 2015.10.31
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Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop a system dynamics model for adolescent obesity in Korea that could be used for obesity policy analysis. Methods: On the basis of the casual loop diagram, a model was developed by converting to stock and flow diagram. The Vensim DSS 5.0 program was used in the model development. We simulated method of moments to the calibration of this model with data from The Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey 2005 to 2013. We ran the scenario simulation. Results: This model can be used to understand the current adolescent obesity rate, predict the future obesity rate, and be utilized as a tool for controlling the risk factors. The results of the model simulation match well with the data. It was identified that a proper model, able to predict obesity probability, was established. Conclusion: These results of stock and flow diagram modeling in adolescent obesity can be helpful in development of obesity by policy planners and other stakeholders to better anticipate the multiple effects of interventions in both the short and the long term. In the future we suggest the development of an expanded model based on this adolescent obesity model.

Keywords

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