Journal of Korea Planning Association (국토계획)

Korea Planning Association (대한국토도시계획학회)
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Forecasting Possibility of Flood Occurrence in Suwon under Climate Change Applying Stochastic Simulation

확률론적 모의 기법을 활용한 기후변화에 따른 수원시 침수 발생가능성 지도 구축

  • Kim, Ji-Yeon (Urban & Environmental Research Group, Suwon Research Institute) ;
  • Sung, Sun-Yong (Interdisciplinary Program in Landscape Architecture, Seoul National University)
  • Received : 2016.01.29
  • Accepted : 2016.03.24
  • Published : 2016.04.30
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Abstract

A natural risk common in urban areas, flooding caused by localized heavy rain has shown an increase under climate change. Thus, It is needed to consider future rainfall event derived from climate change scenario for establishing flood possibility maps. In this study, The stochastic approach was used to quantify the uncertainty in precipitation of future. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to calculate precipitation distribution in 2030. The future flood possibility of Suwon was estimated by using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) applied the results of Monte Carlo simulation. Pyeong-dong in Gwonseon-gu would currently include the highest flood possibility, however, Top-dong would be the most risky areas in 2030. The uncertainty of flood possibility would be higher in Homaesil and Gwanggyo Newtown, whereas Paldal-gu and Northern Suwon have lower uncertainty. As the flood possibility in Seodun-dong would increase as much as 0.32 compared to current one, an adaptation strategy would be necessary for flood prevention. The flood possibility maps resulted from this study can be used to support decision-making for planning safer city.

Keywords

References

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