Journal of Convergence for Information Technology (융합정보논문지)

Convergence Society for SMB (중소기업융합학회)
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The Effect of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts Following Dividend Announcements on Stock Returns

배당공시이후 애널리스트 이익추정치 발표가 주가에 미치는영향

  • Received : 2017.05.10
  • Accepted : 2017.06.20
  • Published : 2017.06.30
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Abstract

This paper examines the effect of the analysts' earnings forecast revisions on stock price after the dividend announcement of the firms has been released. We show that the analysts' upward revisions on earnings forecasts are followed by the positive cumulative abnormal return. We also investigate the signalling effect and the confirmation effect with respect to the effect of the dividend announcement and the earnings forecast revisions on stock price. The test results show that the confirmation effect is stronger than the signalling effect. That is, the investors react only when the analysts' forecasts coincide with the preceding dividend announcement.

본 연구는 기업의 배당공시 이후 애널리스트들의 이익 추정 수정치가 주가에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 살펴보았다. 우선, 배당공시 이후 발표된 애널리스트들의 이익 추정치에 대한 주가 반응을 추정한 결과, 이익 추정이 상향조정된 기업들은 그렇지 못한 기업들에 비해 통계적으로 유의한 양(+)의 누적초과수익률을 기록한 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 배당공시와 이익 추정치 발표의 상호관계에 있어서 '신호효과'와 '확증효과'를 검증하였다. 검증 결과, 확증효과가 우세한 것으로 나타났다. 이는 배당과 이익 수정이 동일한 방향일 때는 시장이 반응을 하지만, 서로 다른 방향일 때는 시장에 중요한 정보가 되지 못함을 의미한다.

Keywords

References

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