Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Generation of radar rainfall data for hydrological and meteorological application (II) : radar rainfall ensemble

수문기상학적 활용을 위한 레이더 강우자료 생산(II) : 레이더 강우앙상블

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University) ;
  • Lee, Dong-Ryul (Water Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Jang, Sang-Min (Climate Application Team, APEC Climate Center) ;
  • Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
  • 김태정 (전북대학교 토목공학과, 방재연구센터) ;
  • 이동률 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원.하천연구소) ;
  • 장상민 (APEC 기후센터, 응용사업본부, 응용사업팀) ;
  • 권현한 (전북대학교 토목공학과, 방재연구센터)
  • Received : 2016.11.01
  • Accepted : 2016.11.22
  • Published : 2017.01.31
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Abstract

A recent increase in extreme weather events and flash floods associated with the enhanced climate variability results in an increase in climate-related disasters. For these reasons, various studies based on a high resolution weather radar system have been carried out. The weather radar can provide estimates of precipitation in real-time over a wide area, while ground-based rain gauges only provides a point estimate in space. Weather radar is thus capable of identifying changes in rainfall structure as it moves through an ungauged basin. However, the advantage of the weather radar rainfall estimates has been limited by a variety of sources of uncertainty in the radar reflectivity process, including systematic and random errors. In this study, we developed an ensemble radar rainfall estimation scheme using the multivariate copula method. The results presented in this study confirmed that the proposed ensemble technique can effectively reproduce the rainfall statistics such as mean, variance and skewness (more importantly the extremes) as well as the spatio-temporal structure of rainfall fields.

최근 국지성 집중호우 및 돌발홍수와 같은 급격한 기상변화로 인한 기상재해의 발생빈도가 증가함에 따라 고해상도의 기상레이더 강우자료를 사용한 수공학 분야의 연구가 활발하게 진행되고 있다. 기상레이더는 넓은 지역에 걸쳐 실시간으로 강우현상 감시가 가능하며 지상우량계로는 파악이 불가능한 미계측유역을 통과하는 강우장의 이동 및 변동성 파악이 가능한 장점이 있지만 대기 중 존재하는 수상체로부터 반사되는 반사도를 사용하여 강우량을 산정하므로 시공간적 오차가 존재한다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 문제점을 해결하기 위하여 다변량 Copula 함수를 활용하여 레이더 강우에 존재하는 시공간적 오차를 규명하고 레이더 강우앙상블 생산기법을 개발하였다. 개발된 모형으로부터 생산된 레이더 강우앙상블은 통계적 효율기준 분석결과 우수한 모형성능을 확인하였으며 추가적으로 극치호우 및 강우시계열 패턴 분석결과 지상강우의 특성을 효과적으로 재현하는 것을 확인하였다.

Keywords

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