Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management

Korea Data Strategy Society (한국데이터전략학회)
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Forecasting Multi-Generation Diffusion Demand based on System Dynamics : A Case for Forecasting Mobile Subscription Demand

시스템다이내믹스 기반의 다세대 확산 수요 예측 : 이동통신 가입자 수요 예측 적용사례

  • Song, Hee Seok (Department of Global IT Business in Hannam University) ;
  • kim, Jae Kyung (Department of Global IT Business in Hannam University)
  • Received : 2017.06.06
  • Accepted : 2017.06.28
  • Published : 2017.06.30
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Abstract

Forecasting long-term mobile service demand is inevitable to establish an effective frequency management policy despite the lack of reliability of forecast results. The statistical forecasting method has limitations in analyzing how the forecasting result changes when the scenario for various drivers such as consumer usage pattern or market structure for mobile communication service is changed. In this study, we propose a dynamic model of the mobile communication service market using system dynamics technique and forecast the future demand for long-term mobile communication subscriber based on the dynamic model, and also experiment on the change pattern of subscriber demand under various scenarios.

Keywords

References

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