Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회논문집)

Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
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Using Logistic Regression for Determining the Factors Affecting Bidding Success in World Bank's International Consulting Projects in Indonesia

로그 회귀분석을 이용한 해외 엔지니어링 사업의 낙찰 성공 요인 분석 - 세계은행의 인도네시아 사업을 중심으로-

  • Yu, Youngsu (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Shin, Byungjin (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Koo, Bonsang (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Han, Seungheon (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University)
  • 유영수 (서울과학기술대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 신병진 (서울과학기술대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 구본상 ;
  • 한승헌 (연세대학교 사회환경시스템공학부)
  • Received : 2017.12.09
  • Accepted : 2018.01.08
  • Published : 2018.01.31
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Abstract

World Bank projects enable Korean engineering firms to enter new markets and diversify their portfolio. These firms need to understand the critical factors for bidding success in such projects. The World Bank publishes as open records all their bidding history data in their open database. This provides an opportunity to identify empirically the factors that determine which firms on chosen. This research collected relevant bid data, focusing on Indonesia, to perform a logistic regression with the goal of statistically identifying significant factors that result in bidding success. Results showed that work experience, being included in a consortium, and having a local partner positively affected winning a bid. On the other hand, having a local competitor of the recipient country negatively impacts the chances of attaining a bid. Commensurately, Korean engineering firms need to increase their work experience in internationally recognized projects, and include a local partner as a joint venture partner to increase their chances, while refrain from conventional projects that can be performed by local engineering firms.

세계은행에서 발주하는 사업은 국내 엔지니어링 기업에게 신규 시장 진출의 기회가 될 수 있으며 이에 따른 지역 및 사업 다각화를 가능케 해준다. 그러나 세계은행 사업에 참여하기 위해서는 입찰에 성공하기 위한 중요 요인이 무엇인지 선제적으로 파악해야 한다. 세계은행은 오픈 DB를 통해 전 세계에서 입찰한 사업 정보를 공개하고 있으며, 이는 낙찰 성공요인을 실증적으로 분석할 수 있는 기회를 제공해주고 있다. 본 연구에서는 본 데이터 중 인도네시아 관련 정보를 웹스크레이핑 기술을 활용하여 수집하고 이를 기반으로 로그 회귀분석을 실시하여 낙찰 성공요인을 통계적으로 추정하였다. 그 결과 해당 공종실적, 컨소시엄 구축 여부 및 현지기업과 제휴 여부가 낙찰 성공 여부에 긍정적으로 영향을 주는 것을 파악되었다. 반면, 현지기업이 동 입찰에 참여할 경우 부정적 영향을 주는 것을 볼 수 있었다. 이에 따라 국내 엔지니어링 기업들은 국제적으로 인정받는 공종 실적을 쌓고, 컨소시엄 구성 시 현지 기업을 포함시키는 동시에, 현지기업이 단독으로 수행할 수 있는 비교적 단순 공종 사업에는 참여를 피하는 것이 좋을 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

References

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