Journal of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회지)

Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회)
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A Study on Early Warning Model in the Dry Bulk Shipping Industry by Signal Approach

신호접근법을 이용한 건화물시장 해운조기경보모형에 관한 연구

  • Yun, Jeong-No (Busna Metropolitan City) ;
  • KIm, Ga-Hyun (Graduate school of Korea Maritime and Ocean University) ;
  • Ryoo, Dong-Keun (Division of Shipping Management, Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
  • 윤정노 (부산광역시) ;
  • 김가현 (한국해양대학교 해운경영학과) ;
  • 류동근 (한국해양대학교 해운경영학부)
  • Received : 2017.11.07
  • Accepted : 2017.12.28
  • Published : 2018.02.28
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Abstract

Maritime industry is affected by outside factors significantly due to its derivative demand characteristics. However, the supply side can not react to these changes immediately and due to this uniqueness, maritime industry repeats the boom-bust cycle. Therefore the government itself needs to operate early warning system in order to monitor the market and notice the upcoming risks by setting up a system to prepare for the situations. In this research, signal approach is used to establish early warning system. Overall leading index is composed of crisis index that is based on BDI(Baltic Dry Index) and various leading indexes such as finance, economy, shipping and the others. As a result of computing overall leading index which is early warning system in maritime through signal approach, the index showed a high correlation coefficient with actual maritime risk index by difference of 4 months. Also, the result was highly accurate with overall leading index's QPS(Quadratic Probability Score) at 0.37.

해운산업은 파생적 수요의 특성으로 대외적 요인에 영향을 크게 받는다. 하지만, 공급 측면은 이러한 수요의 변화에 즉각적으로 대응할 수 없는 특성 때문에 해운산업은 호황과 불황을 거듭하게 된다. 그러므로 정부는 이러한 상황에 대응하기 위해 조기경보모형을 구축해 시장을 모니터링하고 다가올 위험을 예측하는 것이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 신호접근법을 사용해 조기경보모형을 구축하였으며, 위기지수는 BDI를 사용해 정의하였으며 금융, 경제, 선박 등 다양한 선행지수를 활용해 종합선행지수를 도출하였다. 그 결과, 종합선행지수가 해운분야의 실제 위기지수와 비교해 4개월의 시차를 두고 높은 상관관계를 보였고, QPS(Quadratic Probability Score)가 0.37로 정확도가 높은 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

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